1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

Global equities were a mixed bag today, with the US gaining ground at the time of writing but European indices struggling for direction. Energy stocks are struggling in December as oil prices sell off sharply, but Exxon Mobil increased their share buyback by 10%. The VIX has started to rally recently and is above 22. Initial claims were above consensus at 1671k, suggesting the labour market is still weakening; claims are nearly 30% higher than the 12-month average. The dollar weakened today, and the US 10yr yield declined and trading at 3.464%; the UK 10yr has also been declining in recent weeks and trades at 3.081%. EURUSD and cable are still bid, trading at 1.0554 and 1.2235 at the time of writing; once again, we expect this to be a dollar weakness, not fundamental strength for these economies.

Metals prices were well supported today, and volatility was high, especially for a nickel. Nickel rallied to $33,575/t but failed at this level and closed at $29,725/t. The cash to 3-month spread has widened to -$187/t, and the market has sold off further after the close. Copper prices edged higher to test $8,600/t, but this level held, and the market closed at $8,543/t. While prices have gained ground, trading is still thin. Zinc was bid to $3,263/t and closed at $3,235.50/t, and the spread is still backwardation as cash is bid, but lead fails to push higher and closed at $2,212/t. Aluminium gained a footing above $2,500/t and closed at $2,503/t. Iron ore prices were well supported today, with the DCE price up 4% to CNY810/t. The re-opening trade is pushing prices higher; as employment markets falter, this could cause stagflation. The low inventory market persists, but as spreads weaken, it is possible to carry metal. However, financing costs remain high. Production of metals has improved in China, and iron ore imports were solid.

Energy prices found support today but struggle for direction. Brent and WTI trade at $77.25/bl and $72.46/bl. Gas prices were supported, and cold weather forecasts are likely to push energy demand. Precious metals have been supported again today, with gold at $1,789.30 and silver at $23.08/oz.

All price data is from 08.12.2022 as of 17:30

Due to technical issues there is no pricing table


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