1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks fluctuated ahead of the highly watched inflation release tomorrow, which is once again expected to come in lower than the previous month’s reading at 6.5%. If the central banks’ goal to bring the inflation down to the target level prevails, the changes in headline inflation towards that target will not take place until core components begin to soften in line with more volatile parts. In subsequent moths, market will start to pay closer attention to the trajectory of core CPI level. Lower-than-expected inflation reading could trigger some yield softness, but we expect the Fed to hike by 25bps in February. The dollar and the 10yr US Treasury yield have remained unchanged ahead of the event.

The metals market once again saw robust gains on the upside today, supported by reopening sentiment coming from China. Additionally, a lower dollar has also boosted the upside. In particular, aluminium saw protracted buying pressure push the metal above $2,500/t to settle at $2,510/t. Copper rallied for the 5th straight session, breaking above the resistance level of $9,000/t for the first time since June and settled at $9,124.50/t. Iron ore also jumped higher to test the 5-month high of $121.50/mt. Lead fluctuated, and zinc closed higher at $3,207/t. Despite tight market conditions in the market, given historically low stockpiles, cash to 3-month spreads remain at a healthy contango level, suggesting that severe tightness is not imminent. This, coupled with Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations starting next week, could mean seasonal softness in demand coming from China in the coming weeks.

Oil futures were also supported by China’s positive sentiment, rallying in the latter part of the day, despite rising crude stockpiles report coming from the US. WTI and Brent now trade at $77/bl and $82/bl. Gold and silver wavered today, settling at $1,873/oz and $23.40/oz, respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 11012023

All price data is from 11.01.2023 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.