1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks weakened as the markets digested a slew of market data releases today. Retail sales declined by 1.1% m/m, a much sharper contraction than the markets had anticipated, marking the lowest level since February 2021; vehicles and spending at petrol stations drove the decline, suggesting the weakness is not yet indicative of consumer weakness. At the same time, producer prices and capacity utilisation declined faster than expected, falling by 0.5% and 0.7% m/m, respectively, highlighting the underlying demand softness in the industrial sector. The dollar continued to decline, and the 10yr US Treasury yield dropped below 3.50%. UK inflation eased for a second month, as it grew by 10.5% y/y in December; while petrol prices are declining from their highs, food gains drove the underlying performance. The BOJ pushed against the market expectations, as it kept the main policy rate unchanged and the target for the 10-year yields under the curve control programme at 0.5%. The yen has manged to fight back following the immediate sell off, settling at 128.47.

Base metals continued this year’s trend, with prices strengthening across the board as the weaker-than-expected US economic data is giving more room for the Fed to ease the rate of hikes. Aluminium continued to break higher but struggled above the resistance level of $2,620/t and settling at $2,638/t; the cash to 3-month spread continued to tighten, testing the November high at -$21.50/t. Likewise, copper continued to edge higher, settling at $9,323.50/t. Nickel opened higher on the front foot, jumping by $1,260/t on the open, but traded slightly lower from the highs during the day to $27,844/t. Lead was the only metal that closed lower at $2,183/t. Zinc closed at $3,405/t.

Oil futures gained a footing on the back of a positive demand outlook, driving WTI and Brent to $81/bl and $87/bl. Precious metals failed to hold up the earlier gains, with gold and silver settling slightly lower at $1,907/oz and $23.80/oz, respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 18012023

All price data is from 18.01.2023 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.