1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks failed to hold up earlier gains, following the faster-than-expected inflation reading earlier in the day. S&P 500, however, struggled to break below the opening lows, and we anticipate this is due to the inflation figure being within the margin of error in relation to the estimated level. US CPI grew by 6.4% y/y in January, up from the estimates of 6.2% provided by Bloomberg. Energy and shelter costs were again the key drivers of growth, with the former remaining at elevated levels during the month. Core inflation rose by 5.6% y/y, and consumers shifted more of their expenditure towards the services. The forward swaps are now pricing in higher-for-longer terminal rates. The dollar jumped higher to 103.40, and the 10yr US Treasury yield strengthened into 3.78% for the first time since early January. Elsewhere, UK wages rose sharper than expected, increasing by 6.7% y/y in December, marking the fastest pace of growth since the series started in 2001.

Base metals jumped higher in the latter part of the day on the back of CPI data, but quickly reversed these gains to settle marginally unchanged. Aluminium settled lower at $2,409/t after breaching support of $2,408/t. Many aluminium smelters in Europe continue to face challenges in production despite the drop in regional energy prices, according to Norsk Hydro, with a further 60,000t of capacity to be potentially curtailed if there is another increase in energy prices. At the same time, stocks continued to build, and LME closing warrants were seen rising sharply, jumping to the April highs at 601,600mt. Copper jumped higher, but struggled to break above $9,000/t, settling at $8,946.50/t. Lead and zinc remained broadly unchanged at $2,095/t and $3,082.50/t, respectively.

Oil futures tumbled after the US stated its plan to release 26m more barrels from its reserves, with deliveries set to take place between April and June. WTI and Brent tumbled to $78/bl and $85/bl. Precious metals were all seen lower, with gold and silver breaking to $1,847/oz and $21.65/oz, respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 14022023

All price data is from 14.02.2023 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.