1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks edged lower as the risk-off sentiment intensified today, but the S&P 500 still managed to close the third straight month with gains – the longest-running streak since the summer of 2021. The 30yr mortgage rates jumped 22bps to 6.91%, further stifling demand for home purchases. Germany, in line with other bloc’s economies, pointed to a slowdown in inflationary pressures, growing by 6.3% on a year-on-year basis. This helps to underscore the ECB’s call for the end of its tightening cycle. Markets are no longer pricing a full 50bps by the ECB, with markets pointing to the peak rate at just below 3.75% by September. The dollar is trading at 104.50, whereas the 10yr US Treasury yield fell to 3.65%.

Base metals were once again under pressure after manufacturing performance out of China disappointed on the downside; the non-manufacturing also came below expectations as reopening optimisms cooled. At the same time, the value of new home sales in the region by the 100 biggest developers grew by 6.7% y/y; this pales in comparison with the 29% figure seen in the previous two months. Sales fell by 14% m/m. This news weighed on metals, especially used in the construction sector, as economic sectors struggle to show signs of recovery that markets originally anticipated. Only aluminium managed to gain some ground today, holding above $2,200/t to close at $22,46/t. Meanwhile, copper fell back below $8,100/t to $8,089/t. Lead and zinc saw the brunt of the decline, with both losing more than $40/t of value on the day to close at $2,012.50/t and $2,248.50/t, respectively.

Oil futures continued to weaken, with muted China data weighing on demand outlook; WTI and Brent are now trading at $68/bl and $72/bl. Gold and silver continue to hold above the support levels at $1,967/oz and $23.03/oz, respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 31052023

All price data is from 31.05.2023 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.