US stocks wavered today, despite the news that the debt-limit deal passed the House, as an AI-driven rally cooled slightly, weighing on sentiment. From the macroeconomic perspective, the labour data showed some signs of easing; however, from the historical perspective, it still remains tight. US initial jobless claims gained ground to 232,000 in the week ending May 27th but still remained below market expectations. ADP employment change remained firm at 278,000 in May. Tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls should provide further insight into where the labour market is heading. The dollar weakened, and the 10yr US Treasury yield held at 3.60%. The Fed officials are signalling that they are planning to keep the rates unchanged during the next meeting this month, helping to guide market expectations in the weeks ahead of the meeting.
A marginal upside was seen across base metals today, as yesterday’s weakness stalled, and metals found new support levels. China’s manufacturing data provided contradicting signals of factory activity last month; Caixin jumped higher back above 50, suggesting improving conditions, while S&P Global data pointed to a continued weakness in the sector. This creates an unclear outlook in regard to the nation’s recovery from the lockdown restrictions earlier this year and suggests that more time is needed to assess the growth outlook. Aluminium continued to gain ground, edging above $2,250/t to close at $2,282.50/t. Support at $8,100/t held firm for copper, and the metal strengthened to close $8,243.50/t. Lead was the only metal lower on the day, falling to test the support at $2,000/t, the low not seen since November; the metal closed at $1,999/t.
Oil futures saw sharp recoveries in the latter half of the day, back to $70/bl and $74/bl. Likewise, precious metals, including gold and silver, rebounded to $1,980/oz and $23.80/oz, respectively.
All price data is from 01.06.2023 as of 17:30
