Another day of positive economic data bolstered the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric for further hikes this year, bringing US stocks marginally higher today; Treasury yields surged as a result. In particular, the 2yr jumped more than 17bps, while the 10yr strengthened to 3.84%. The forward swaps market is now seeing a 32bps increase from the Fed by the end of the year, vs 17bps at the start of the week. US initial jobless claims fell by the most since October 2021, down to 234,000 in the week ending June 24th, highlighting the persistently strong labour market. Meanwhile, GDP was revised up to a 2% annualised pace, while the US core PCE gauge was revised down to 4.9% y/y for Q1, supporting the outlook of a more robust economy. The dollar jumped back above 103. Elsewhere, inflation data from the EU pointed to a further divergence in countries’ performance: Germany’s CPI quickened to 6.8% y/y in June, while Spain was price growth weakened below the 2% target.
Metals space saw another day of moderate declines, continuing on the longer-term path. Aluminium weakened slightly, testing the support level of $2,150/t before regaining some momentum to $2,160/t. Meanwhile, copper saw the fifth consecutive day of declines, falling below $8,200/t to $8,177.50/t. Nickel rebounded after testing the $22,000/t support level. Lead and zinc closed at $2,051/t and $2,341.50/t, respectively.
WTI and Brent remained unchanged at $69/bl and $73/bl. Gold and silver fluctuated but held above $1,900/oz and $22.50/oz, respectively.
All price data is from 29.06.2023 as of 17:30