1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks weakened today after labour market data pointed to slight softness in the overall jobs market. US initial jobless claims came in at 207,000 in the week ending September 30th, which is still near the historical lows. This trend is set to continue into Friday’s key non-farm payrolls report, which is projected to have weakened slightly to 170,000 in September, slightly below this year’s average. Despite positive signs in the overall economy, the Treasury yields, and the dollar have reversed the recent upside trend after a sharp rally that these assets have seen in recent days. Both are now trading at 4.74% and 106.50, respectively. Market uncertainty is growing about the impact of high interest rates on economic performance, and while the US economy remains robust, the longer-term toll might be greater than expected. We expect this to weigh on risky assets in the coming months.

Another day of declines was seen across the base metals space, with aluminium and copper falling to $2,232/t and $7,899/t, respectively. Lead struggled below the $2,100/t level and bounced higher to close $2,135.50/t. Zinc, on the other hand, continued to decline, falling below the support level of $2,500/t to settle at $2,476.50/t. Nickel softened below the robust support level of $18,700/t to $18,490/t; the robust support at $18,230/t remains intact.

Oil futures extended the decline to $82/bl and $84/bl for WTI and Brent, respectively, as markets assessed the true impact of tightening global supply on slowing economic growth. Gold and silver, however, continued to weaken to $1,815/oz and $22.70/oz, respectively. We believe these levels to be oversold.

All price data is from 30.10.2023 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.