US stocks fluctuated amid mixed economic data releases today. GDP growth stabilised in the last quarter of the year, growing by 2.9% at an annualised rate. The consumers again drove most of the incline, but the sector is showing signs of slowing. Personal consumption grew by 2.1% y/y, while above market forecast, is still lower than 2.3% in Q3 2022. Wages are not keeping up with inflationary pressures, and consumers are compelled to draw down their savings; the level as a % of disposable income now equals 2.4%, the summer 2005 lows. The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, PCE, also saw moderate softness to 3.2% y/y, the slowest pace of growth since 2020. This data highlights the robustness of the US market to take further tightening from the Fed, with a meeting set to take place next week. US initial jobless claims rose to 186k in the week ending January 21st, highlighting labour market tightness. The dollar jumped higher to 102.06, and the 10yr US Treasury yield remained unchanged.
HK stocks reopened today, jumping to an 11-month high on the back of holiday spending and tourism travel data over the holiday period. Some of this sentiment echoed in the base metal market, but the overall appetite remained lacklustre. Tin, once again, saw a jump higher today, breaking above the $32,000/t level to settle at $32,262/t, the June high. Copper fluctuated, remaining at high levels of $9,329.50/t. Lead and zinc both saw a moderate upside, closing higher at $2,204.50/t and $3,486.50/t, respectively. Only nickel settled lower today at $29,427/t. Lead cash to 3-month spread flipped back into backwardation at $1.00/t. Iron ore futures continue to edge slightly higher but struggling to break the resistance of $126/mt, settling at that level.
Oil futures remained unchanged at $81/bl and $87/bl for WTI and Brent, respectively. Russian exports continue to climb higher despite sanctions introduced by Western counterparts, as India’s oil processors are seen buying more Russian material. Gold and silver traded at $1,925/oz and $23.94/oz.
All price data is from 26.01.2023 as of 17:30