US stocks fluctuated once more today as investors awaited comments from Fed speakers and Powell. These could help confirm the narrative for the interest rate outlook into 2024. Meanwhile, the labour data continued to soften, with the initial jobless claims rising for a seventh straight week, confirming last week’s monthly jobs report. In our view, while this might price out a chance for another hike in the near term, we do not expect cuts to take place until Q2 2024 at the earliest. This will help ensure that inflation remains on a path to under the 2% target while the economy avoids a strong recessionary dip. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Vujcic stated that policymakers could also engineer a return to stability in prices while maintaining a soft landing. The dollar remained unchanged, and the 10-year US Treasury yield struggled below 4.50%.
Another day of lacklustre moves across the LME exchange. Zinc’s upside stalled after the metal hit a psychological resistance of $2,600/t, settling at $2,602.50/t. Likewise, lead edged lower to close at $2,190/t. Aluminium continued to weaken, offsetting the most recent gains, reaffirming its mean-reverting tendency; the metal closed at $2,242.50/t. Copper struggled below $8,100/t before coming back to $8,147/t.
Oil futures strengthened once again after hitting technical support levels. Likewise, gold and silver edged higher after the most recent weakness, trading at $1,963/oz and $22.95/oz, respectively.
All price data is from 09.11.2023 as of 17:30