US stocks reopened for half of the day following the Thanksgiving holidays, edging marginally higher on the open. Meanwhile, treasuries were under pressure today, and we have seen a 10-year yield reverse back to 4.50%, suggesting that the most recent weakness might be oversold, and yields are finding new support at current levels. From the macroeconomic perspective, US employment for service and manufacturing providers declined for the first time since mid-2020, according to the S&P Global’s flash index, falling to 49.7, as the overall index remained unchanged at 50.7. This data suggests that while overall performance is keeping afloat, risks are bubbling up in the labour market, with other data pointing to continued softness in employment.
Another mixed day of trading across the LME exchange. Both lead and tin continued to erase gains made earlier in November, retracing by 50% and 100% this week, respectively. Both metals settled at $2,196.50/t and $23,884/t, respectively. Nickel continued to post new lows, breaching the $16,500/t level comfortably to $16,138/t; the next support level stands at $16,000/t; however, we do not expect it to hold in the near term. Aluminium and copper remained broadly unchanged at $2,216/t and $8,48.50/t, respectively. Iron ore futures continued to edge lower following yesterday’s announcement; however, they struggled to break below the $130/mt level, settling at $133.86/mt. Meanwhile, stainless steel futures have continued to tumble, breaching the 3-year low in recent weeks, given prevailing weak demand fundamentals.
Oil futures remained unchanged as OPEC+ closes in on a deal to resolve the African oil quota dispute, keeping WTI and Brent unchanged at $76/bl and $82/bl. Gold and silver jumped higher despite yields strengthening, suggesting a fundamental shift taking place in safe havens, a trend that we have discussed in our Q4 QMR Report. Gold and silver now trade at $1,999/oz and $24.25/oz, respectively.
All price data is from 24.11.2023 as of 17:30