US stocks inched slightly higher, closing out one of the best Novembers in recent years. However, we believe that the rally will begin to lose steam in the first half of December, as markets await the Fed's move on December 13th. If the rates remain unchanged, investors are likely to fully price in the end of the tightening cycle, and attention will shift more toward the timing and scale of next year's monetary policy trajectory. The dollar has bounced back to 103.20, and the 10-year US Treasury yield settled at 4.30%. In Europe, inflation has slowed down more than expected, coming in at 2.4% year-over-year, which is the closest it has been to the ECB's target since July 2021. We anticipate that the December reading may tick up higher due to the low base of growth last year, thanks to Germany's energy subsidies; however, the downward trend is likely to continue into Q1 2024.
Today, the base metals complex saw mostly downbeat sentiment. Aluminium tested the $2,200/t level and broke below it, closing at $2,193/t, with the next robust support level standing at $2,170/t. Copper held firm above $8,400/t. Meanwhile, nickel struggled to maintain the upside seen over the last couple of trading sessions, breaking back below the $17,000/t level. Lead's downside is showing no respite, closing the eighth consecutive day lower at $2,123/t.
Oil futures sold off following the OPEC+ announcement of an additional 1 million barrels per day cut to avoid a global surplus. Investors were unimpressed with the lack of detail provided by the cartel, pushing WTI and Brent lower to $75/bl and $72/bl, respectively. Precious metals fluctuated at high levels.
All price data is from 30.11.2023 as of 17:30