1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks strengthened today. The markets are trying to gauge the timing of the first interest rate cuts, closely following all economic data releases that could impact the Fed’s decision. Tomorrow’s CPI print will likely bring more volatility, shaping markets’ expectations regarding the central bank’s actions going forward. In recent days, the probability of the first interest rate cut in March increased to more than 70%. US dollar edged slightly lower and stood at 102.40, which we believe is a stable level until the next Fed’s meeting at the end of the month. The 10yr US Treasury yield fell, testing 3.98% but came back up and stood at 4.00%.

Metals remained broadly unchanged today, given little change in macroeconomic indicators ahead of the CPI print tomorrow. We expect metals' volatility to increase regardless of whether the inflation index will fall in line with expectations or not. With all eyes on the Fed and the upcoming cutting cycle, markets are paying close attention to the inflation print to help reduce the uncertainty on the timing and scale of monetary policy easing. Aluminium held below the $2,250/t level at $2,234/t, while copper traded at $8,331.50/t. A lower-than-expected inflation print would help prices to breach the near-term resistance level; however, we do not expect this move to be sustainable, as near-term momentum remains on a marginal downside for both aluminium and copper, respectively. Lead, once again, struggled below the $2,050/t, settling higher at $2,083.50/t. Zinc edged lower to close at $2,495.5/t.

Precious metals fluctuated today. Gold tested the $2040/oz. level and fell back to $2025/oz., while silver fell to $22.87/oz. Oil prices remained mostly unchanged with WTI and Brent at $72.37/bl. and $77.59/bl., respectively.

Image (8)

All price data is from 10.01.2024 as of 17:30


This is a marketing communication. The information in this report is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as a recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any particular investment. Please be aware that, where any views have been expressed in this report, the author of this report may have had many, varied views over the past 12 months, including contrary views.

A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

Please contact the author should you require a copy of any previous reports for comparative purposes. Furthermore, the information in this report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. All information in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

This report is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Accordingly, the information may have been acted upon by us for our own purposes and has not been procured for the exclusive benefit of customers. Sucden Financial believes that the information contained within this report is already in the public domain. Private customers should not invest in these products unless they are satisfied that the products are suitable for them and they have sought professional advice. Please read our full risk warnings and disclaimers.

Sign up to get the latest market insights

We will email you each time a new report has been published.