Another day of strong US equity performance with the main indices remaining close to all-time-high levels. Dollar appreciated against other major currencies and stood at 103.72, while the 10yr US Treasury yield gave back Friday’s gains, trading at 4.1%. Central bank meetings are in focus this week. All of them are expected to hold rates steady, although we are likely to see some growing disparity between policymakers’ views in the coming months. After contracting in Q3 2023, we expect the Euro area to have stagnated in Q4 2024. With the expectation of a lower January CPI print, this could set the scene for the acceleration of pricing in rate cuts, weighing on the euro.
Base metals softened today, driven in large by Evergrande’s liquidation order by a Hong Kong court, once again bringing China’s property sector into the spotlight. However, as the market has already priced in the implications of a real estate slowdown, the impact on prices was minimal. Aluminium and copper held their ground at $2,264.50/t and $8,558/t, respectively. A lack of macro influences has also kept these metals at bay. Lead continued to be supported above $2,150/t, looking for another impetus on the upside. With the cash to 3-month spread now in backwardation and COTs still negative, we could see another leg higher in lead prices. Nickel weakened below the $17,000/t level as markets are hesitant to break out of the current range; growing supply fundamentals are also keeping a lid on nickel gains.
We saw significant fluctuations in precious metal prices today. Gold edged slightly higher and stood at $2027/oz, while silver increased to $23.1/oz. Oil prices declined with WTI and Brent crude trading at $77.26/bl and $82.86/bl, respectively.
All price data is from 29.01.2024 as of 17:30
