1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks opened lower today, following a remarkably strong performance last Friday that saw the Nasdaq Composite reach an all-time high and the S&P 500 close above 5100 for the first time. Last week's weaker-than-expected US economic data heightened investor expectations for a rate cut in June, with forward swaps now indicating a 74% likelihood of a mid-year reduction. The 10-year US Treasury yield has seen a slight rebound since last Friday, currently trading at 4.23%, while the dollar index has remained stable, hovering around the 103.85 mark. Investors are keenly awaiting the ECB's statement on Thursday to discern any indications of the onset of monetary easing. The USDEUR pair continues to fluctuate within the narrow range of 0.922 to 0.926.

This week, there will be plenty of macroeconomic releases and central bank speakers, but we don't expect this data to change the momentum in base metals trading. Volatility could increase due to fluctuations in the dollar. In the meantime, Friday's sentiment trickled into today’s performance: aluminium held firm at $2,234/t. Copper ticked up higher, supported in part by diminishing stocks on the LME, prompting copper to close at $8,542.50/t. Nickel held above the $17,500/t level after markets once again rejected prices below this level. Lead continued to be technically driven, falling for the 6th consecutive day to $2,030/t.

Precious metals have kicked off the week strongly, building on last Friday's momentum that was fuelled by softer US data, with gold appreciating to $2,101.7/oz and silver climbing to $23.5/oz. However, with gold entering the overbought territory, we expect a downward correction, potentially bringing the bullion back to around $2,050/oz. Oil prices remain at historically elevated levels following OPEC+ members' decision to extend voluntary production cuts for an additional three months in an effort to bolster prices, which have been dampened by a weaker global outlook. WTI crude is currently trading at $79.5/bl, with Brent crude at $83.4/bl.

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All price data is from 04.03.2024 as of 17:30


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