US stocks fluctuated today following news of the overnight Israel attack on Iran, which caused a spike in intra-day volatility. After weeks of historical gains, safe-haven assets are less sensitive to the news of the escalation of the Middle East conflict. While intraday volatility surged after the attack, the dollar, precious metals, and oil relinquished their early morning gains later in the day. Although there is potential for precious metals to reach record levels again, we anticipate that any upcoming appreciation will be more subdued than what was observed at the beginning of the month.
Another day of solid gains was seen across the base metals complex today. While geopolitical tensions overnight caused some volatility across asset classes, it struggled to move prices sustainably, prompting gains to be reversed earlier in the day. However, in line with our yesterday’s comment, further closing of short positions in key metals prompted further gains during the day, suggesting that the complex is now moving independently of macroeconomic and fundamental indicators. Copper moved higher once again, breaching the $9,800/t resistance level to $9,876/t. Likewise, aluminium solidified the $2,600/t level as support, pushing prices higher to $2,669/t. Lead tested a key resistance of $2,200/t, while zinc held firm at $2,852/t.
Gold traded at $2,390/oz, and silver edged higher to $28.5/oz. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to decline, with WTI and Brent falling to $83.2/bl and $87.5/bl, respectively. The dollar index dropped back below the 106 mark, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.6%.
All price data is from 19.04.2024 as of 17:30
