US stocks fluctuated today following the release of the weekly labour data. Last week's jobless claims were higher than expected, with initial claims reaching 231,000 and continuing claims at 1,785,000, both hinting at a slight weakening in the US labour market. The dollar slipped below the 105.3 mark, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remained steady, just under 4.5%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%. Although Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the need for more data to confirm a sufficient easing of inflation before starting monetary policy changes, his positive outlook on inflation softening led the markets to adjust their expectations for a rate cut in June. Forward swaps are now pricing in a 60% probability of the first cut next month. The USD/GBP pair fell today, trading at 0.799.
Another day of marginal market moves was seen across the base metals complex today, highlighting market uncertainty about higher price levels. Indeed, according to the latest COT report, speculative net positions are now reducing from recent highs, suggesting upside appetite might be waning. Copper once again struggled above the $10,000/t level, closing at $9,904.50/t. Likewise, aluminium remained unchanged at $2,561.50/t. Lead and zinc held firmly above $2,233.50/t and $2,905.50/t, respectively.
A weaker dollar lifted precious metals today, with gold rising to $2,330/oz and silver once again climbing above $28/oz. Oil prices maintained this week's upward momentum, with WTI trading at $79.3/bl and Brent at $83.89/bl.
All price data is from 09.05.2024 as of 17:30
