US stocks fluctuated today. The Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Conference Board, experienced a slight uptick, increasing to 102 in May from 97 previously, exceeding analysts' expectations. Higher consumer confidence can signal potential increases in consumer spending, which often drives demand for goods and services and can contribute to inflationary pressures. The markets are pricing in the first Fed interest rate cut in November, but we think the volatile election period could lead the policymakers to wait until December. The dollar index edged slightly lower, hovering just below the 104.5 level, while the 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, standing at 4.48%.
Following last week's volatile moves, UK markets started the week on a quieter note. In particular, copper, which swung between $10,200/t and $11,000/t, now fluctuates around the $10,500/t level. It appears that short positions have been covered, and we anticipate a continuation of the upside price trajectory from a more neutral standpoint. Still, market fundamentals add to the moderately bullish narrative in the medium term, although the near term will likely remain more volatile. Aluminium continued to strengthen following Rio Tinto's force majeure announcement on alumina cargoes, placing additional pressure on the supply side; the metal is now back above $2,700/t at $2,729.50/t. The rest of the complex followed suit, with lead and zinc edging higher to $2,343.50/t and $3,100/t, respectively.
Gold remained broadly unchanged at $2,355/oz, while silver continued yesterday's upward momentum, testing the $32/oz level. Oil climbed today, with WTI and Brent crude at $79.5/bl and $83.8/bl, respectively.
All price data is from 28.05.2024 as of 17:30
