1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks opened higher today, starting the week close to record highs. Signs of softness in the labour market have brought the 10-year US Treasury yields and the dollar index lower as investors’ expectations for the first Fed interest rate cut in September grow. Forward swaps are currently pricing in more than an 80% chance of a cut in the last month of Q3. CPI data due on Thursday is expected to show further softening in price pressures, which could further assure investors that the start of the Fed’s monetary easing is near. The dollar index traded just below the 105 level, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged from Friday, closing at 4.28%.

In France, the election results were unexpected, with the left-wing New Popular Front alliance securing 188 seats in the National Assembly. Macron’s party won 161 seats, while the far-right National Rally took third place with 142 seats. Since no party achieved the 289 seats needed for an overall majority, the country is likely to experience some volatility as it navigates a hung parliament.

The base metals complex retested the robust resistance levels today. However, a lack of strong appetite prompted prices to remain below these levels. While we see limited downside for the complex, the upside risk is likely to be more controlled in the coming weeks due to a seasonally quiet summer period. While macro factors currently have little impact on the price trajectory, we will keep an eye on the US CPI print this week as it might influence prices. Copper fluctuated around the $9,550/t level, struggling to break above the $10,000/t resistance level. Likewise, aluminium remained below $2,550/t. Zinc’s $3,000/t remained robust today. Lead, on the other hand, continued to gain momentum, edging close to $2,550/t.

Despite a weaker dollar, precious metals softened today. Gold traded at $2,375/oz, while silver stood at $31.1/oz. As worries about Hurricane Beryl affecting refining and production infrastructure subsided, oil prices declined, with WTI and Brent crude at $82.7/bbl and $86.2/bbl, respectively.

Lme Metals Price And Volume 08072024

All price data is from 08.07.2024 as of 17:30


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