US stocks opened lower today as investors continued to assess the implications of the Fed's recent shift to an easing cycle. The dollar index edged higher but remained below the 101 mark, while the 10-year US Treasury yield extended its upward trend, reaching 3.76%. With the Fed now easing rates, market focus has shifted toward identifying the new normal for interest rates. After significant fluctuations, with support around 3.5% throughout 2022 and 2023, yields are now expected to stabilize closer to 3.8% in the coming months. In the UK, retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 2.5% in August compared to 1.5% in July. Meanwhile, in the Eurozone, consumer confidence reached its highest point since early 2022, with a reading of -12.9, reflecting improved sentiment despite ongoing economic uncertainties.
Base metals softened today, reversing the trend that drove markets higher in recent sessions. The market still closed higher week-on-week. Copper maintained its strength above $9,400/t, closing at $9,476.50/t, while aluminium weakened to $2,485/t. We expect the market to soften next week, continuing to follow the mean-reversion strategy. Nickel continued to pare new gains to $16,150/t.
Gold surged to a new record high today, crossing the $2,600/oz mark for the first time and trading at $2,617/oz. Silver followed suit, rising to $31.19/oz. Oil prices remained relatively flat, with WTI and Brent crude trading at $72.1/bbl and $74.8/bbl, respectively.
All price data is from 20.09.2024 as of 17:30
