1. Metals Outlook
  2. Daily Base Metals Report

US stocks opened higher today, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs. Retail sales in September exceeded expectations, rising 0.4% MoM compared to the 0.1% increase recorded in August, reflecting strong consumer spending. Initial jobless claims for last week also came in lower than forecast, underscoring the continued resilience of the US labour market. While labour market momentum has slowed, layoffs remain at historically low levels, supporting wage growth and further boosting consumer confidence. This economic strength pushed the dollar higher, with the greenback trading at 103.8, while the 10-year US Treasury yield surged close to 4.1%, reflecting increased investor confidence in the world's largest economy. In the Eurozone, the final CPI reading for September came in softer than expected at 1.7%, marking a continued decline in inflation. The ECB responded by cutting interest rates for the third time, lowering them from 3.5% to 3.25%. Market expectations for a more aggressive 50bps rate cut in December have risen, with forward swaps currently pricing in a 40% chance of such a move, reflecting growing concerns over subdued inflation and slowing growth in the region.

Base metals weakened on the open today following the lack of concrete announcements from the briefing in China. As mentioned in our yesterday's report, disappointing support from China bolstered a risk-off appetite in the market in the first half of the day. However, market sentiment has already accounted for the subdued growth from the region, meaning recent announcements are unlikely to stimulate interest in the construction sector in the near term. Hence, we saw the negative momentum subside in the second half of the day to account for that. Copper tested its key support at $9,450/t but then edged slightly higher to $9,510/t. Likewise, aluminium struggled below the $2,500/t level. Nickel experienced sharper losses as it is further away from its current mean, holding above $17,000/t at the time of writing.

Gold reached a new record high today, trading at $2,694/oz, while silver followed suit, appreciating toward $32/oz. Oil prices fluctuated, with WTI and Brent crude trading at $70.7/bbl and $74.4/bbl, respectively, as the markets weighed global supply concerns against demand uncertainty.

17102024

All price data is from 17.10.2024 as of 17:30

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