1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 23092022

NY sugar futures edged higher yesterday, but resistance at 40 DMA once again held firm, and the futures closed below at 18.00. The indicators continue to rise, however, the momentum is seen slowing, as the %K/%D is diverging in the neutral and the MACD is positive and diverging slightly day-on-day. If the resistance at 40 DMA at 17.95 holds firm, we’d expect to see the prices decline down to 17.62. The 10 DMA at 17.82 has to be broken first to confirm this momentum in the longer term. If the upside resistance is broken above, this could set the scene for a test of 18.17 before the 18.44 level. The prices have traded range-bound in the last couple of days between the 10 and 40 DMA levels, and we expect this momentum to continue in the near term.

Tables 1 (214)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 23092022

Ldn sugar futures gained a footing yesterday but struggled to break above the 500 level completely, closing slightly higher at 503.50. The stochastics are continuing to fall, with %K now oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and has been flat, suggesting slowing downside momentum and a possible trend reversal in the near term. The trading volume has reduced substantially as the market struggles to suggest an outlook out of the current ranges. If the support at 487.60 is broken below, this could trigger losses to 480 and 471.80. On the upside, the near-term resistance at 505.40 has been formed, and if this level is broken above, it could test 512.90. Both the futures formation and the indicators in recent days suggest a lack of appetite out of the current range, and we expect the trend to reverse marginally higher in the near term.

Tables 2 (213)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 2309222

NY futures opened lower day-on-day, but support at 212.60 helped the prices to close higher at 217.25. The stochastics seen converging back on the downside, with the %K/%D to decline back into the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and converging, but the momentum is slowing. This suggests that we could see the recent upside momentum subside and the trend shift into a more bearish one in the near term. To confirm this, the futures need to break below the robust support level at 212.60 before targeting 209.65. On the upside, the 10 and 40 DMA provide robust resistance levels at 218.64 and 221.04, respectively. If these levels are broken above, this could set the scene for a trend resistance level at 223. Volume has softened in the last couple of days. However, with the indicators suggesting a strong sell signal in the near term, we expect the futures to gain momentum on the downside.

Tables 3 (213)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 23092022

Ldn coffee futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 2238. The stochastics are about to converge on the downside once again, and the MACD diff is negative and continues to converge, suggesting we could see slightly lower prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook of lower prices, futures need to close back below 2215 and then target 40 DMA at 2197. The 40 DMA is closing in and supporting prices on the downside. However, a break above the 10 DMA level at 2235 could set the scene for resistance at 2281, the recent highs. The narrow candle body with longer lower wicks points to a lack of appetite on the downside, but the indicators point to a change of momentum on the downside, keeping the descending triangle formation intact.

Tables 4 (214)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 2309222

NY cocoa futures softened yesterday after testing the support level of 2314. The market closed higher at 2320. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. The appetite back above 10 DMA at 2351 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 40 DMA at 2378. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 2314 and then 23000 in order to confirm the growing bearish trend and the descending triangle formation in the near term. A break of 2314 is needed first to suggest the downside momentum.

Tables 5 (212)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 23092022

Ldn cocoa futures weakened marginally yesterday but struggled to break completely below the 1850 level, causing the futures to close slightly lower 1843. The stochastics have converged on the downside and now falling, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. In order to confirm the change in trend, prices need to break below the support of 1850 completely and then trend support at 1812. Conversely, a break above the 1884 resistance could set the scene for a test of 1900. We expect prices to weaken in the near term.

Tables 6 (213)



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