1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 21102022

NY sugar weakened yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close at 17.50; today, this level was broken to 17.39. The indicators continue to suggest further weakness in the near term. The %K/%D is negative and diverging, and the MACD diff just converged on the downside, a strong sell signal. To confirm the indicators’ momentum, futures would need to break below 17.00 before the recent lows of 16.68. Alternatively, resistance levels are 10, and 40 DMA at 17.74 remain intact, and if the futures were to supersede these levels, we could see prices test 18.00. The moving averages are capping any upside momentum and the indicators suggest we could see further weakness in the near term.

Tables 1 (226)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 21102022

Ldn sugar sold off yesterday after a similar bearish candle on Wednesday, closing below the support level of 500 at 496.00. The stochastics are falling, and MACD diff just converged on the downside, suggesting an impending downturn in the markets in the near term. Support at 495.80 is being tested today, and if this level does not hold, futures could fall to 487.60 before 480. On the upside, resistance at 507.69 solidified in recent sessions, and if this level is breached, this could set the scene for upside momentum to 512.90. A long bearish candle with no shadow suggests the appetite for lower prices in the near term.

Tables 2 (225)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 2110222

NY coffee futures held their nerve yesterday, after the previous days’ sell-off, closing marginally unchanged at 186.40. the stochastics are seen bottoming out in the oversold, and the MACD diff is showing signs of convergence as the downside momentum stalls. This is confirmed by the spinning top formation, where the investors lacked the appetite in either direction. To suggest that the down trend is over, futures need to break back above 190.50 before the 10 DMA at 196.96. On the downside, the support at 182.50 would need to be broken below to 180. These levels are already being tested today, suggesting we could see a continuation of that momentum in the near term.

Tables 3 (225)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 21102022

Ldn coffee futures jumped higher yesterday as prices struggled below the 2000 level and closed higher on the day at 2041. The stochastics are seen rising out of the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, highlighting yesterday’s appetite for higher prices. If this momentum continues, we could see the futures test the 10 DMA at 2074 before 2100. Alternatively, a break below the 2000 level would confirm the strength of downside momentum, urging the futures to fall to 1914. We expect the futures to remain at current levels in the meantime.

Tables 4 (226)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 2110222

NY cocoa edged higher yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test resistance at 2330 once again; the market closed higher at 2327. Stochastics are falling, but %K/%D is seen converging on the upside. The MACD diff is negative and has remained broadly unchanged day-on-day. To suggest a trend change on the upside, prices need to close above 10 DMA at 2340 and then target 40 DMA at 2347 before 2400. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 2320 could trigger losses back to 2300, a break below which would confirm the descending triangle pattern. Buying pressure was weak yesterday, and the indicators are pointing to further downside momentum.

Tables 5 (224)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 21102022

Ldn cocoa futures edged higher to retest the 1900 level, closing slightly above at 1901. The stochastics are showing signs of convergence on the upside, as %K is seen tailing off, and the MACD diff is negative and continues to diverge slightly. On the upside, if resistance at 1900 is broken above, futures could test 1930 before 1950. On the downside, the support level at 1870 is robust, and a break below this level could trigger losses to 40 DMA at 1862. A longer upper wick suggests that there is a lack of appetite above the 1900 level. We expect the futures to trade within the current range in the near term.

Tables 6 (225)



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