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Daria Efanova

Daria Efanova Head of Research

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NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 26102022

NY sugar softened marginally as the futures closed at 17.18. The stochastics continue to fall, with %K now in the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see prices fall further in the near term to 17.00. If this level is breached, the next line of support is at 16.68 and then 16.50. On the upside, if the resistance at 17.48 is broken above, this could set the scene for prices to 10 DMA at 17.56 before 40 DMA at 17.66, which provides robust resistance levels for the prices. The candle body is small, suggesting a lack of conviction for strong downside pressure, and we expect prices to be supported by 17.00 in the near term. 

Tables 1 (228)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 26102022

Ldn sugar futures edged lower yesterday after futures broke below the 495.80 level to close at 492.60. The stochastics are falling in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the bearish indicators and rejection of prices above 49580, futures need to take out support at 487.60, the recent lows and then target 480. On the upside, futures need to close above 10 DMA at 503.11 and then target 505.40 in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices towards 512.90. Prices need to take out current support to confirm the outlook for lower prices. We expect futures to weaken in the near term back. 

Tables 2 (227)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 2610222

NY coffee futures held their nerve yesterday after testing the support level of 182.50. The market closed at that level. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside in the oversold, while the MACD diff is negative and converging, painting a mixed picture for the price outlook. The reaffirmation of support at 182.50 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 10 DMA level at 187.99, confirming a hammer formation. On the downside, futures need to break below the current support in order to suggest a continuation of the bearish trend. Indeed, the 182.50 support level has been robust in the last couple of sessions; a break below this level would suggest strong conviction on the downside. The longer upper wick with a narrow body confirms the support is still intact.

Tables 3 (227)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 26102022

Ldn coffee futures softened yesterday after piercing the support level of 1950. The market closed at 1948. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just diverging on the downside in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative but has remained broadly unchanged in recent days, failing to suggest a conviction in the market. The appetite back above 2000 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 10 DMA at 2011, confirming the hammer formation. On the downside, futures need to break below the support at 1950 before falling to test the 1914 level, the July lows. We are seeing the support at current level form in recent days. We expect the downside momentum to slow in the near term.

Tables 4 (228)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 2610222

NY cocoa futures edged lower yesterday after testing 2300 once again to close at 2308. The stochastics are falling towards oversold once again after converging on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and is converging on the upside slightly, suggesting lower prices in the near term before the change of trend. On the downside, futures need to take out support at 2300 and then target 2236. On the upside, futures need to close above 10 DMA at 2329 and then target the 40 DMA at 2340 to confirm the outlook on the upside to 2400. Prices have struggled below 2300 for the majority of October, and with the indicators being oversold, we expect this level to hold in the near term.

Tables 5 (226)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 26102022

Ldn cocoa futures sold off yesterday, falling to close at 1884. The stochastic has converged on the downside as a result, and the MACD is negative and diverging once again, highlighting the strength of yesterday’s move. To suggest a continuation of the momentum, the futures need to break below the 1880 level completely before testing the 50 DMA at 1868. Alternatively, support at current levels could trigger gains back to 1900 before 1930. Three-line strike formation, however, points to a continuation of an uptrend. To confirm this, futures need to break above the 1900 level in the near term. 

Tables 6 (227)

Contents

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A large number of views are being generated at all times and these may change quickly. Any valuations or underlying assumptions made are solely based upon the author’s market knowledge and experience.

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