NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures weakened on Friday after investors rejected prices above 16.70, prompting a close below at 16.65. The stochastics are tailing off on the downside in the oversold, suggesting the downside momentum is slowing and could signal a change of trend in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and has begun to show signs of convergence on the upside, indicating waning sentiment on the downside. To confirm another bearish candle, prices would need to break below the support level at 16.65 before the 16.50 level, a break below which would confirm the three black crows formation. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 17.00 and then 10 DMA at 17.20 in the near term. Near-term momentum is on the downside, but the indicators suggest that we might see the futures find support at current levels.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures softened on Friday but found support above 482.50. The market closed at 484.40. The stochastics are beginning to reverse in the oversold, with %K/%D converging on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting we could see higher prices in the near term through the resistance of 487.60. A break above this level would bring into play 10 DMA at 494.59, which could set the scene for 500. On the downside, futures need to break below the 482.50 level in order to confirm downside momentum. The reaffirmation of appetite for lower prices could trigger losses towards the level at 480; this could strengthen the trend in the longer run on the upside. Today’s candle has already broken above the near-term resistance, and with the indicators converging on the upside out of the oversold, we expect to see more upside in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures buckled on Friday after investors rejected prices above 180, prompting a close below at 167.75, July 2021 lows. The stochastics, however, have converged on the upside in the oversold once again, and the MACD diff is negative and has also begun to converge, indicating improving sentiment on the upside in the near term. To confirm another bearish candle, prices need to break below the support level at 165.95 before the 160 level. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 180 and then 10 DMA at 183.05 in the near term. The length of Friday’s candle suggests a strong appetite for lower prices on that day; however, the indicators suggest the end of the downtrend. To confirm this, the prices need to break back above the 180 level.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures lost ground on Friday as selling pressure intensified; prices closed at 1849. The MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting weakening selling pressure. The stochastics are converging once again out of the oversold; however, in recent weeks, it lacked the conviction to suggest the buy signal. To help confirm the waning selling pressure from the stochastics, prices need to break above 1872. If futures can break above this level, this could set the scene for higher prices back above 10 DMA at 1943 before targeting 1950. Selling pressure has fluctuated in the recent sessions outlined, and the indicators suggest slowing momentum on the downside in the near term. This is confirmed by a bearish candle body with a longer lower wick, as the prices formed support at 1840. We expect prices to remain in the lower trading ranges but for the appetite on the downside to slow.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa held its nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 2312. The %K/%D continues to fall close to the oversold after struggling to converge on the upside, and the MACD is negative but remained flat in recent sessions, confirming market uncertainty around the price direction; this is confirmed by Friday’s spinning top formation. To suggest positive momentum, prices need to close above 40 DMA at 2334 and then target 2400. On the downside, the rejection of prices above the 10 DMA at 2317 could trigger losses back to the 2300 level, the longer-term support level. Buying pressure has been weak, and the indicators point to a continuation of lacklustre momentum. The break of resistance at 10 DMA could confirm the outlook for higher prices in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 1861. The stochastics are falling marginally, with %K/%D diverging into the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting further downside pressures in the near term. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to close below 1850 and then target 1830. On the upside, a break above the 50 DMA level at 1872 would signal a buy signal, given the robust nature of the support level. A bearish candle with a narrow body after a similar bullish candle points to uncertainty about the outlook, and the futures need to break out of current resistance to confirm the near-term outlook on the upside.
