NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures jumped higher on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 17.77. The RSI is falling, while %K/%D is diverging in the overbought. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging, confirming growing buying pressures. On the upside, finding support above the 40 DMA at 17.54 could trigger gains through the 100 DMA at 17.97 towards 18.17 – September highs. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA at the 17.21 level could trigger losses back towards 16.64. The 40 and 10 DMAs have been supporting futures prices on the upside and downside, respectively, and a break of 40 DMA on Friday and sustained price performance above this level today could suggest further upside in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures consolidated on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 512.40. The RSI is falling, and %K/%D is seen tailing off on the downside near the overbought territory. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting waning buying pressure. The indicators point to a trend reversal in the near term, and to confirm the momentum, prices need to take out 40 DMA at 504.57. A break below this level towards 10 DMA at 497.44 would confirm the growing bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 100 DMA at 515.90 could trigger a test of resistance at 520. The longer upper wick suggests that the futures repeatedly tested the resistance at 514 but struggled to hold above this level, and with prices gapping lower on the open today, we expect momentum to soften in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as trading saw prices close at 171.65. The stochastics are seen diverging up out of the oversold for the first time since early October, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, confirming the softening downside momentum. On the upside, a break above 10 DMA at 175.07 could set the scene for bullish momentum towards 182.50 and 190. Alternatively, a break of the 170 level could trigger losses through 165.95. The spinning top formation on Friday suggests market indecisiveness as support and resistance levels at 170 and 10 DMA, respectively, held firm. However, the indicators suggest a change of momentum on the upside, and we expect to see some upside in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures gained ground on Friday but struggled above 10 DMA once again to close at 1869. The stochastics are rising, with the %K/%D about to leave the oversold, as the MACD diff is negative and about to converge on the upside, which would suggest a strong buy signal. This suggests we could see further bullish momentum in the near term, with prices breaking above 1872 before testing the 1914 level. On the downside, the candle found support at 1827, and if the prices break through this level, we could see prices retreat back to 1800. The bullish candle with longer upper and lower wicks point to prices confirming the support and resistance levels, as the futures closed marginally unchanged day-on-day. We expect the upside momentum to accelerate in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures strengthened on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2430, the highs not seen since mid-August. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D is diverging towards the overbought. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging, confirming growing buying pressures. On the upside, finding support above 2400 could trigger gains through the 100 DMA level at 2471 towards 2500. On the downside, a break below the 10 and 40 DMA levels at 2346 and 2335, respectively, could trigger losses back towards 2300. These levels have been supporting futures prices in recent days, and with the 10 DMA breaking above the 40 DMA level, the golden cross, we expect prices to further strength on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures skyrocketed in recent sessions, and on Friday, the protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 1996, the highest level since February 2020. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D are diverging on the upside, both are overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, outlining the recent market rally. On the downside, a break back below the support level of 1950 could trigger losses back towards 1900, a break below the 50 DMA at 1883 would confirm the outlook for a trend reversal. On the upside, a break above 2000 could trigger gains through the resistance towards 2030. The market rally has been strong, with three white soldiers' formation confirming the strength of bull sentiment. We could see prices trend even higher today, confirmed by long candle bodies and small shadows.
