1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 02122022

NY sugar futures opened higher yesterday, but the resistance of 18.60 caused futures to close lower on the day at 18.56. The stochastics have converged on the upside, a strong buy signal, and now the %K/%D is rising higher in the neutral territory. The MACD diff, however, is negative and diverging. A break of 18.50 could trigger losses through 18.17, with the tertiary level at 100 and 40 DMAs at 17.97. On the upside, a break above 19.70 could set the scene for bullish momentum towards 20.0. The longer lower wick suggests that prices tested for lower levels but rejected the downside momentum during the day. We expect the futures to remain supported by 18.50 today.

Tables 1 (244)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 02122022

Ldn sugar futures softened yesterday after finding resistance at 530. The market closed at 526.70. The stochastics are gaining ground after having converged on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting we could see higher prices in the near term through near-term resistance. A break below 10 DMA at 526.53 would bring into play the 520 level, which could set the scene for 100 and 40 DMAs. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 530– the previous day's high - in order to confirm upside momentum. The appetite above that level could trigger gains towards the level at 540; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The hanging man formation, where there was some sell-off during the day, points to an end of the uptrend, however, the short candle body point to market uncertainty about the change of trend, and the 10 DMA has to be broken first to confirm the momentum.

Tables 2 (243)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 0212222

NY coffee futures edged above the previous day's closing price, but the bullish momentum was not strong enough, and futures closed lower on the day at 165.75. The stochastics continue to rise yet are seen converging, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging. The rejection of prices at 170 has formed a candle with a long body and a long wick on the upside, suggesting an appetite for higher prices, however, lacking the conviction to break above the near-term resistance. If prices were to break above 170, this could trigger a test of 40 DMA at 176.46 and 180. To confirm the shooting start formation, futures need to take out 10 DMA at 163.18 and then robust support at 160. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for lower prices.

Tables 3 (243)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 02122022

Ldn coffee futures gained marginal ground yesterday as moderate buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 1855. The RSI is rising, and %K/%D is diverging on the upside into the overbought but is seen converging. The MACD diff is positive and diverging on the upside, but the momentum is slowing, suggesting waning buying pressure. The indicators point to higher prices in the near term before the change of trend. On the upside, prices need to take out a robust resistance at 1872. A break above this level towards 1900 would confirm the strong bullish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices below 10 DMA at 1829 could trigger a test of support at 1800. Longer upper wick points to waning upside momentum, and the indicators point to a slowdown in a recent moderate bullish trend in the near term.

Tables 4 (244)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 0212222

NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday but struggled above 2543 once again to close at 2519. The stochastics are rising, with the %K/%D edging higher, as the MACD diff is negative and converging on the upside. This suggests we could see further bullish momentum in the near term, with prices edging towards 2550 before testing the 2577 level. The futures, however, need to break above the 2543 level. On the downside, the candle found support at 2500, and if the prices break through this level, we could see prices retreat back through 10 DMA at 2472. The bullish candle with a narrow body and long upper and lower wicks points to an appetite for higher prices but lacks conviction for a rally.

Tables 5 (242)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 02122022

Ldn cocoa futures edged lower yesterday as prices failed above 2000 and then closed below at 1980. The indicators are beginning to suggest growing downside momentum, the stochastics are seen converging on the downside, with %K falling after edging close to the overbought area, and the MACD diff is negative and remained flat in recent days, suggesting upside impetus is slowing. A close below the 1970 level would bring into play the support at 1950. On the upside, prices need to find support above 2000 and the previous month's high at 2050. Indicators point to a growing bearish momentum, however, prices have struggled to break out of the current support/resistance in recent sessions, and a break out of these levels would set the scene for a trend change.

Tables 6 (243)



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