1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 19122022

NY sugar futures edged higher on Friday but failed to break above the near-term resistance of 19.00 to close at 18.82. The stochastics continue to edge higher after nearly converging on the upside, suggesting a lack of momentum for a change of trend. The MACD diff is positive and edging higher, suggesting further marginal momentum on the upside. However, the 19.00 resistance remains firm, and a break above this level could trigger further gains to test the recent resistance level at 19.25 before 19.50, hence confirming the ascending triangle and pennant. Alternatively, the support at the 10 DMA level is also supporting prices from the downside, and a break below could confirm further downside to 18.50 and then 40 DMA at 18.21. The longer upper wick suggests that the futures tested the upside level but struggled to gain momentum above it; we expect this level to prevail today.

Tables 1 (250)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 19122022

Ldn sugar futures also edged higher on Friday after finding support at 10 DMA to close at 531.60. The stochastics are edging higher, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging marginally. To confirm further upside in the near term, the 540 needs to be broken first before recent highs of 545. On the downside, a break below the recent robust support at 10 DMA at 527.76 could set the scene for 40 and 100 DMAs at 520.83 and 516.57, respectively. Friday’s upside momentum was marginal and mostly driven by the support level at 10 DMA; we expect this level to hold in the near term, pushing the futures slightly higher.

Tables 2 (249)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 1912222

NY coffee sold off on Friday after struggling above the trend resistance level to close at 164.40. The stochastics are now showing signs of convergence, and the MACD diff level is positive and edging lower, highlighting the appetite for lower levels on Friday. The support at the 10 DMA level at 164.24, however, held firm and to suggest further downside, this level has to break first before the futures retest the 160 level. Alternatively, the upside trend resistance at 175 needs to be broken above to suggest upside impetus to 180. The three-line strike suggests that Friday’s downside might be temporary, and we might see further marginal upside in the near term above 10 DMA.

Tables 3 (248)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 19122022

Ldn coffee struggled above the near-term resistance once again at 1882, and closed below at 1866. The stochastics have converged on the downside out of the overbought, suggesting we might see softness building up in the near term. The MACD diff confirms this by converging on the downside. To confirm this, the futures need to edge below the 40 DMA at 1851 before the robust support level at 1800. Alternatively, if the resistance at 1882 does not hold, it could send the futures up to 1900. However, this level has held firm in the last couple of weeks, and with the indicators suggesting a growing downside, we expect to see the futures lower in the near term.

Tables 4 (250)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 1912222

NY cocoa weakened strongly on Friday, breaking below the support level of 2500 to close at 2480. The stochastics continue to weaken, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting further downside to 40 and 200 DMA at 2455 before 2400. Alternatively, the 40 DMA level crossed above the 200 one, the golden cross, which suggests a strong buy signal, and as a result, we expect these levels to hold. If 2500 is broken above once again, it could trigger gains to 10 DMA 2507 and 2550. The long wick on the downside on Friday suggests the strength of the conviction, however, we expect the 2455 level to hold in the near term.

Tables 5 (248)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 19122022

Ldn cocoa futures weakened on Friday after struggling above 1900 once again, triggering a close at 1893. The stochastics continue to weaken into the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. This could suggest further weakness below the 100 DMA at 1890 to 1850. On the other hand, a break back above 1900 could bring into play the resistance at 50 DMA at 1941 and then 1950. We expect the prices to remain muted in the near term.

Tables 6 (249)




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