1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 09012023

NY sugar futures sold off on Friday once again after protracted selling pressure prevailed, prompting a close below 100 DMA at 18.07 at 17.91. The stochastics are falling, with RSIs in neutral territory; the %K/%D, however, are showing signs of convergence while oversold, suggesting waning downside momentum. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, but the downside sentiment is seen slowing. To confirm another bearish candle, prices need to break below the support level at 17.95 before the 17.62 level. Tertiary support stands at 17.50, a break below which would confirm the three black crows' formation. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 18.00, the level that was breached earlier this morning, and then the moving averages in the near term. Near-term momentum is on the downside, and this is highlighted by the 10 DMA crossing below the 40 DMA level, the death cross.

Tables 1 (255)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 09012023

Lnd sugar futures buckled on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 513.80. The stochastics are falling, and %K/%D continue to edge lower further into the oversold; the RSI is also falling. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, confirming growing selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 505.40 level. A break below this level would confirm the outlook of lower prices. On the upside, a break back above the 100 DMA resistance level at 518.96 and reaffirmation of support above 520 could strengthen the trend on the upside in the long run. Futures need to take out the DMAs in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices. However, in line with the NY sugar, the 10 DMA crossed below the 40 DMA level, confirming the upside resistance in the near term.

Tables 2 (254)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 0901223

NY coffee edged lower on Friday as moderate downside appetite caused futures to close at 158.50. %K/%D is edging into the oversold, and the MACD is diverging on the downside marginally, confirming a lack of conviction for lower price levels; this is confirmed by Friday’s support at 160. To suggest a change of momentum, prices need to close above the trend resistance, a robust level, and then target 40 DMA at 164.41. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 160 could trigger losses back to the 164.55 level, the long-term support level. Selling pressure has been weak, and the indicators point to a continuation of lacklustre momentum. The futures have been range-bound for the last couple of months, and we expect this to continue in the meantime.

Tables 3 (253)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 09012023

Ldn coffee futures held their nerve on Friday after piercing the support level of 1825. The market closed lower at 1825. The stochastics continue to fluctuate, with %K/%D flipping between upside and downside momentum. The MACD diff is negative and has remained flat. The reaffirmation of support at 1820 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 10 DMA level at 1846, confirming an inverse hammer formation. This could also set the scene for 1900 if the appetite picks up. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 1800 in order to confirm the bearish trend. Indeed, this support level has been robust in the last couple of months, a break below this level would suggest strong conviction on the downside. The longer upper wick with a narrow body confirms the support is still intact.

Tables 4 (255)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 09012023

NY cocoa futures softened on Friday after finding resistance at 2620. The market closed at 2612. The stochastics are wavering, struggling to point out an outlook, while the MACD diff is positive and converging slowly, suggesting we could see marginally lower prices in the near term. On the upside, a break above 2620 would bring into play the 2670 level. On the downside, futures need to break below 10 DMA at 2609 in order to confirm downside momentum. The appetite below that level could trigger losses towards 2600; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the downside. A candle with a longer lower wick after a similar bullish candle highlights the uncertainty for futures to move in either direction.

Tables 5 (253)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 09012023

Lnd cocoa futures lost ground on Friday after prices tested the 2015 resistance level, prompting a close at 1993. The stochastics are overbought, with %K/%D now seen converging on the downside, and the MACD diff is positive and converging as futures failed to confirm the outlook for higher prices. On the downside, the short-bodied candle suggests low appetite and lower prices in the near term. Prices need to close below 1950 before targeting 100 DMA at 1912. A bearish inside candle suggests uncertainty surrounding the outlook for lower prices, and until the futures break below 1950, we are likely to see lacklustre momentum.

Tables 6 (254)




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