1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 05042023

NY sugar prices gained ground yesterday, testing resistance at 22.00 once again, triggering a close at 22.07. The stochastics favour the upside, but %K/%D are flattening out in the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, pointing to an improved outlook in recent days. The RSI is rising, and yesterday’s candle suggests we could see prices challenge 22.00 again in the near term. In the medium term, futures need to hold above this level before targeting 22.50. On the downside, a break below the 21.75 support level could trigger losses back to 10 DMA at 21.08 and then 20.94. Narrow candle bodies point to a softer appetite above the current resistance level. We anticipate prices to improve today, retesting the near-term resistance as moderate buying pressure continues.

Tables 1 (290)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 05042023

Ldn sugar futures gained ground yesterday after prices found support at 620 once again; this triggered a close at 629.40. The stochastics are rising, but the gap between %K and %D is narrowing, which could suggest a growing downside impetus. The MACD diff is positive and flat after the recent upside, suggesting we could see futures slow on the upward momentum. In order to suggest higher prices, futures need to close above the current resistance and 630.50. On the downside, if current resistance holds firm, this could prompt a break of current support at 620, setting the scene for lower prices at trend support. Futures have been trading flat in recent days, but yesterday’s long candle body points to appetite to test the 630 level, which we could see reattempted today.

Tables 2 (289)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 05042023

Prices weakened marginally yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 173.95. The MACD diff is negative and converging. The stochastics are rising, and the inside day yesterday suggests a continuation of the recent trend on the upside. A dip below 100 DMA was quickly recovered, and a recent candle break above this level could point to further upside momentum, but recent resistance at moving averages seems robust, and if this level holds, prices could come back and trade within the range. Conversely, a fall below the recent support could trigger losses to 160. The indicators point to further upside momentum, but candles need to break above the short-term moving averages to confirm this in the longer term.

Tables 3 (288)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 05042023

Ldn coffee futures strengthened yesterday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2219. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D is diverging towards the overbought. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging. On the upside, finding support above 2200 could trigger gains through 2219, the recent highs, towards 2250. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA at the 2167 level could trigger losses back towards the 40 DMA at 2127. That level has been supporting futures prices, and a break below it would signal strong selling pressure. Longer lower wick signals that the buying pressure is growing, and the bullish outlook is on the horizon.

Tables 4 (290)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 05042023

NY cocoa futures gained ground yesterday after prices found support at the trend level, this triggered a close at 2882, off the high of 2918. The stochastics are falling, with %K leaving the overbought territory and converging up the downside with %D. The MACD diff is positive but is starting to converge, suggesting we could see futures test support at the trendline at 2840 once again. On the downside, in order to confirm lower prices, futures need to close below this level down to 2800. The full bullish candle yesterday suggests a resilient appetite for higher prices. We expect further upside in the near term.

Tables 5 (288)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 05042023

Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 2144. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside out of overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook of lower levels, futures need to close back below 2100 and then target 50 DMA at 2086. This level, however, is closing in and supporting prices on the downside. If prices find support at current levels, this could trigger gains to 2150 and then 2175. The narrow candle body with long upper and lower wicks points to market uncertainty about the direction of the move, and the futures need to break above the current resistance to confirm the near-term outlook.

Tables 6 (289)




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