NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures gained ground on Friday after the 10 DMA support held firm once again; the prices closed at 25.86. Futures momentum has been range-bound in recent days, fluctuating between 10 DMA and 26.40, respectively. The stochastics are confirming the uncertainty for prices out of the levels, with %K/%D wavering between gains and losses, and the MACD diff is negative and flat. Volumes continue to diminish slightly day on day. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below 10 DMA at 25.55 before targeting 25.00. Alternatively, if prices were to break above 26.40, this could trigger gains to 27.00 and 27.21, respectively. We believe that futures will remain supported above the shorter-term moving average in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading tested appetite at 700. This level held firm, and the future closed at 704.80. The stochastics are rising slightly, and the MACD diff is negative and flat, signalling a lack of momentum in either direction. To suggest the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the support of 10 DMA at 696.96 could set the scene for futures to take out the 23.6% fib level at 662.81. On the upside, the market needs to take out the resistance of 710 and then support at 718.20. A short candle body with short wicks suggests a lack of appetite for prices out of the current ranges, and we expect futures to remain unchanged in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw prices close at 182.85. The RSI is falling, and %K/%D have converged on the downside, a strong sell signal. Likewise, the MACD diff is negative but flat, suggesting some appetite for lower prices, but futures need to break below the 180 level to trigger the momentum. A break below this level towards 100 DMA at 176.58 would confirm the growing bearish trend. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 40 and 10 DMAs at 184.01 and 185.11, respectively, could trigger a test of resistance of 190. A long-legged doji candle shows indecision about either direction as it traded between 180 and moving averages; the length of the wicks also points to increased volatility during the day. The indicators struggle to suggest a change of momentum on the upside, but futures are likely to hold above 180 in the meantime.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures opened below 10 DMA but found strength during the day to close higher at 2432. The RSI is rising, while %K/%D continues to decline. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressures. The indicators point to lower prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the support; prices need to take out 2400. A break below this level towards 2355 would suggest a strong bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 10 DMA at the 2431 level could trigger a test of 2485. A smaller candle body after a strong bearish candle signals uncertainty about the outlook for lower prices, and only a break below the key support of 2400 would confirm that there is more appetite for downside potential.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures struggled to break below the trend support on Friday, and intraday trading saw prices close at 2986. The RSI is falling, and %K and %D are converging the downside near the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and converging marginally, suggesting a further appetite for lower prices, but futures need to break support of 2980 to trigger the momentum. A break below this level towards 10 DMA at 2950 would confirm the stronger negative momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above Friday’s highs of 3049 triggers a test of trend resistance of 3100. A gravestone doji candle shows rejection of lower prices but still closed near the lows. The indicators suggest further momentum below these levels in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 2268. The traders pushed futures to test the highs of 2300, but this level was rejected, and prices settled marginally unchanged day-on-day. Still, the stochastics are rising towards the overbought, as the MACD diff is negative and converging, signalling a potential buy trend in the near term. This suggests we could see higher prices towards the trend resistance once again, but the market needs to take out immediate trend resistance at 2300 beforehand. On the downside, if the support around 2200 is taken out, we could see prices retreat back through to 50 DMA at 2168. Longer upper wick on Friday points to the appetite for higher prices; however, futures need to take out 2300 in order to confirm the outlook on the upside.
