1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 19062023

NY sugar futures gained ground on Friday as buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 26.00 at 26.09. The stochastics are rising with the %K/%D diverging towards the overbought area, as the MACD diff converged on the upside – a clear buy signal. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term towards 27.00, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance of 26.37. A break of 26.00 resistance level completely would confirm the three white soldiers’ formation. On the downside, the candle found support at the previous day’s close at 25.50, and if the prices break through this level, we could see futures retreat back through the 40 DMA at 25.31 before the 10 DMA at 24.98. Friday’s candle is forming a bullish signal, but futures need to take out the longer-term resistance at 26.37 in order to confirm the outlook on the upside.

Tables 1 (315)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 19062023

Ldn sugar strengthened on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 700. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside near the overbought. The MACD diff just converged on the upside, a strong buy signal. A long bullish candle body with a longer lower wick suggests growing buying pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the resistance at 711.60, which is the recent high. This would confirm the trend for rising prices in the longer term. On the downside, a breach of support at 40 DMA at 688.55 would strengthen the bearish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards the 10 DMA at 678.25. Indicators point to higher prices, but as prices are approaching a robust resistance, the upside momentum might be waning.

Tables 2 (314)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 19062023

NY coffee futures softened on Friday after finding resistance at 40 DMA. The market closed at 180.75. The stochastics are diverging on the downside, while the MACD diff is positive and converging slowly, suggesting we could see marginally lower prices in the near term. On the upside, a break above 40 DMA at 184.44 would bring into play the 190 level. On the downside, futures need to break below the 10 DMA at 182.25 completely in order to confirm downside momentum. The appetite below that level could trigger losses towards 180; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the downside. A small candle body after a similar bullish candle highlights the uncertainty for futures to move in either direction, and we see the moving averages keeping the current range intact.

Tables 3 (313)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 19062023

Ldn coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at 2790. This level held firm, and the future closed at 2747. The stochastics are rising into the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive but has remained broadly unchanged, suggesting slowing upside pressures. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the resistance at 2790, which could set the scene for futures to take out the 2800 level, a new high. On the downside, the market needs to take out support at 10 DMA at 2678 and then support at 2600. The 10 DMA level continues to support prices from the downside, and shooting star formation on Friday suggests a waning appetite for higher prices. If futures cross below the 10 and 40 DMA levels, it could suggest the end of the recent bull run.

Tables 4 (315)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 19062023

NY cocoa futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused the market to close at 3236. The stochastics are rising in the overbought, but the momentum is slowing. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting waning upside pressures in the near term. To confirm the outlook of lower prices, futures need to close back below 3200 and then target 10 DMA at 3152. The 10 DMA is starting to close in and supporting prices on the downside. However, a break below that level could set the scene for lower prices. Two narrow-bodied candles with longer lower wicks in the last couple of sessions point to market uncertainty for higher prices, and the futures need to break out of current resistance/support to confirm the longer-term outlook.

Tables 5 (313)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 19062023

Ldn cocoa futures opened above the previous day’s open; however, prices struggled above 2500 and closed on the back foot at 2478. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D seen converging on the downside in the overbought. The MACD is positive and remained flat in recent days, suggesting waning upside pressures in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards support at 2400; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 2300. On the upside, a break of robust resistance at 2500 may prompt futures to test 2518, 2016 high. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to gain further upside momentum in the near term. Longer upper and lower wicks point to a lack of appetite out of the current trading range; however, the future needs to break below 2400 support to confirm the outlook to lower prices.

Tables 6 (314)




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