1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 30062023

NY sugar futures weakened once again yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a break of support at the longer-term moving average before closing at 22.08. The stochastics are falling further into the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see prices continue to weaken in the near term. The close just off the lows at 22.00, and the bearish indicators suggest we could see prices fall further and test 21.00. The next robust level stands at 20.48, and if prices can find support below this level, then this could prompt a test back of 20.00, the February low. The bulls need to close above 100 DMA at 22.96 in order to gain a foothold in the market and pave the way for higher prices to 24.00. Selling pressure was strong yesterday, and this could trigger further losses in the near term.

Tables 1 (319)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 30062023

Ldn sugar weakened yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 615.80. The stochastics are falling; however, seen converging slightly on the upside, signalling a potential change of trend in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. A full bearish candle suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 619 support level completely. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 600. On the upside, resistance at 100 DMA at 633.95 has now formed, and gains above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains back towards 650. The protracted bearish candle suggests continued downside pressures, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term but for that momentum to slow.

Tables 2 (318)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 30062023

NY coffee futures opened lower but managed to close above the 160 level at 161.60. The stochastics are showing signs of convergence on the upside while oversold, which could suggest a change of momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, but the momentum is slowing, and the recent diff was flat. On the upside, futures need to break above the resistance levels of 164.05 and 10 DMA at 170.28 to trigger momentum. Prices would then need to take out the 180 level to confirm the longer-term outlook. Conversely, appetite for prices below 160 could trigger a test of support of 155 before 150, the lows not seen since January. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of lower prices and could point to an end of the bearish sentiment we have seen in the last couple of days. The indicators highlight a similar trend, suggesting we could see a change of trend in the near term.

Tables 3 (317)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 30062023

Ldn coffee futures sold off yesterday after investors rejected prices above 2600, prompting a close below the longer-term trend resistance at 2570. The stochastics are falling into the oversold, suggesting for short-term negative trend. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm another bearish candle, prices need to break below the support level at 40 DMA at 2595 completely before the 2500 level. Tertiary support stands at 2400, a break below which would create the three black crows formation. To regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above 2600 and then 2675 in the near term. Near-term momentum is on the downside; the close below two shorter-term DMA confirms this trend.

Tables 4 (319)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 30062023

NY cocoa futures softened yesterday after finding resistance at recent highs at 3350. The market closed at 3261. The stochastics are wavering, but recent moves indicated convergence on the downside, edging slightly out of the overbought, while the MACD diff is positive and converging slowly, suggesting we could see marginally lower prices in the near term. On the upside, a break above 3350 would bring into play the 3400 level. On the downside, futures need to break below 10 DMA at 3247 in order to confirm downside momentum. The appetite below that level could trigger losses towards 3200; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the downside. A candle with short wicks after a similar bullish candle highlights the uncertainty for futures to move in either direction.

Tables 5 (317)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 30062023

Ldn cocoa futures started the day on the front foot yesterday but softened throughout the day after finding resistance at 2600. The market closed at 2547. The stochastics are converging on the downside in the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term. A break below 2550 completely would bring into play the 2500 level, which could set the scene for 2486. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 2600 in order to confirm upside momentum. Prices struggled to break above 2600, and we expect to see the end of the bull run in the near term.

Tables 6 (318)




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