1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 11092023

NY sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw prices close at 26.60. The stochastics are falling, and %K/%D is converging on the downside out of the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting growing selling pressure. The indicators point to growing weakness in the near term, but prices struggled to break 26.37 in recent days; if futures break through that level, it could trigger a test of support at 10 DMA at 26.21 before 26.00. On the upside, prices need to take out the 27.21. A break above this level towards 28.00 would confirm the strong bullish momentum. Another longer-bodied candle with upside and downside shadow points to a lack of momentum out of the current support/resistance range. Given the indicators’ view of growing selling momentum, we anticipate prices to be on the back foot in the near term.

Tables 1 (337)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 11092023

Ldn sugar futures opened above the previous day’s close; however, prices struggled above 720 and closed on the back foot at 714.30. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D seen diverging on the downside out of the overbought. The MACD is positive and converging, suggesting a strong sell signal in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards support at 711.60; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 700. On the upside, a break of the 730 resistance may prompt futures to retest the recent high of 737.50. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the near term. Longer upper and lower wicks point to an appetite out of the current trading range; however, the future needs to break below 10 DMA support to confirm the outlook for lower prices.

Tables 2 (336)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 11092023

NY coffee futures softened on Friday after prices failed above the 10 DMA level, prompting a close on the back foot at 148.65. The stochastics are falling, and the MACD diff is about to converge on the downside, outlining the weakness in the market. Selling pressure has been growing; however, futures struggled to break the support of 147.20. The 10 DMA at 152.65 level has been robust in the last couple of sessions, and we expect this level to hold. A break above it could set the scene for 155.80. We anticipate prices to remain on the back foot in the near term.

Tables 3 (335)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 11092023

Ldn coffee futures struggled to break below the support of 2400 on Friday, and intraday trading saw prices close above it at 2408. The RSI is falling, and %K and %D are diverging on the downside towards the oversold. The MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting a further appetite for lower prices, but futures need to break support of 2400 to trigger the momentum. A break below this level towards 2350 would confirm the stronger negative momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices above the 10 DMA at 2455 could trigger a test of trend resistance near the 40 DMA at 2484. A gravestone doji candle shows rejection of lower prices but still closed near the lows. The indicators suggest further momentum below this level in the near term.

Tables 4 (337)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 11092023

NY cocoa futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw prices close at 3654. The RSI is rising, and %K/%D are positive and are seen diverging on the upside once again. The MACD diff is positive, and the market saw downside momentum slow, suggesting waning selling pressure. The indicators suggest a weakening appetite on the downside, and to confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to take out 3700. A break above this level towards the 3800 level would confirm the strong bullish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices below the 10 DMA at 3598 could trigger a test of support of 3483. Futures remained range-bound in recent days, struggling to break out of the current support/resistance level. We anticipate prices on the front foot in the near term; however, futures need to break above 3650 completely to confirm the momentum.

Tables 5 (335)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 11092023

Ldn cocoa strengthened on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 3050. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D diverging on the upside further into the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging. A long bullish candle body with no shadow suggests strong buying pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the 3000 resistance completely. This would confirm the trend for rising prices, up to the second trend resistance at 3090. On the downside, a breach of support at 2927 would strengthen the bearish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards the 2800. Indicators point to further gains in the near term.

Tables 6 (336)

 

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