1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 06102023

NY sugar futures edged higher yesterday, holding above the trend support at 24.60 and closing at 24.89. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D just converging on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, sending a buy signal. The reaffirmation of support at the trend support could set the scene for higher prices back above the 100 DMA level at 25.00. Today’s candle has already breached this level, and we expect to see further gains on the upside. The next robust resistance level is now seen at the 76.4% fib level at 25.46 before 40 and 10 DMA at 25.70. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 100 DMA in order to end the recent trend of marginal strength. Indeed, the 10/40 DMA and 100 DMA are providing robust resistance support levels, respectively. We expect to see futures edge higher in the near term, and with the 10 DMA crossing below the 40 DMA level, a death cross, the upside might be limited at these levels.

Tables 1 (347)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 06102023

Ldn sugar futures edged higher yesterday, testing the 700 level to close at 693.50. The indicators suggest we could see higher prices in the near term. The stochastics have converged on the upside, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. Today’s candle opened higher, testing for prices above 700. We expect this to continue. On the upside, a break above the 10 DMA at 701.08 could then test the 40 DMA level at 704.68. Superseding this level, resistance stands at 720, the last week’s high. On the downside, if futures fall below the 100 DMA at 686.18, then we could see futures break back below 675. The narrowing DMA resistance/support suggests a narrowing trading range; however, a break out of these levels could pave the way for stronger momentum in the near term.

Tables 2 (346)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 06102023

NY coffee futures weakened yesterday after breaking below the support of 147.20. The market closed at 146.40. The stochastics are falling in the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see lower prices in the near term through the support of 145. A break below this level would bring into play the 143 level, a robust support level. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 10 DMA at 149.35 in order to confirm upside momentum. Appetite for higher prices here could trigger gains towards the level at 40 DMA at 152.65; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The short candle body and a cross below 147.20 suggest that momentum for lower prices remains marginal, and we expect the downside to slow in the near term.

Tables 3 (345)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 06102023

Ldn coffee futures softened yesterday after closing below 2300 at 2302. The stochastics are falling further into the oversold territory, although the momentum is slowing. The MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting that the recent downside momentum might be waning and futures might find support at the near-term levels. A break lower would bring into play the 2285. On the upside, futures need to gain back above 2342 in order to confirm upside momentum. The reaffirmation of support here could trigger gains towards the 10 DMA level at 2349; this could strengthen the trend in the long run on the upside. The longer upper wick points to an increased appetite on the upside, but we expect to see prices edge lower before finding support in the near term.

Tables 4 (347)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 06102023

NY cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close above 3400 at 3422. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D diverging on the downside further into oversold, but the MACD diff is negative and converging. The indicators paint a mixed picture, struggling to highlight an outlook in either direction. To suggest the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above the 10 DMA at 3472 and then target 3482. The 10 DMA is closing in and supporting prices on the upside. On the downside, a break below 3400 could set the scene for 3375, the June low. The narrow candle body with longer lower wicks points to waning appetite on the downside, but the futures need to break out of current resistance to confirm the near-term outlook.

Tables 5 (345)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 06102023

Ldn cocoa weakened marginally yesterday, but support at 2900 caused the futures to close at 2920. The stochastics are falling once again, with %K about to enter the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. This could suggest that we will continue to trade sideways in the near term, and if the resistance levels at 10 DMA at 2940 and 3000 hold, then the prices could edge back above 3100. If the resistance at 10 DMA stands firm, this could weigh on prices, pushing them below 2902 to the 40 DMA level at 2891. A bearish candle body with longer upper and lower wicks suggests uncertainty in breaking out of the current support/resistance levels, and the indicators point to uncertainty outside of the current range.

Tables 6 (346)

 

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