NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite above 22.00. This level held firm, and the future closed at 22.46. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D trading in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, signalling waning selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for a change of trend, futures need to break back above the 23.00 level to set the scene for futures to take out the 23.42. On the downside, the market needs to take out support of 22.00 and then 21.50. The candle found support above both this level; however, a narrow candle body points to uncertainty around higher prices. We expect prices to remain supported above 22.00 but remain in the lower end of the range.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures softened marginally on Friday as moderate selling pressures saw futures test appetite at 634.50. This level held firm, and the future closed at 637.10. The stochastics are diverging on the downside in the oversold. Likewise, the MACD diff is negative and diverging on the downside, signalling growing selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the support at 628.10, which could set the scene for futures to take out the 615. On the upside, the market needs to take out resistance at 650 and then 10 DMA at 670.72. The shorter candle body after a strong sell-off and oversold indicators highlight that we are unlikely to see a rapid trend change in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused the market to close below the 180 level at 177.15. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D breaking out of the overbought territory, and the MACD diff just converged on the downside, a strong sell signal, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to close back below 175 and then target 171.85. A complete break above the 10 DMA at 177.70 would further highlight impetus on the upside. Two narrow-bodied candles with long wicks in the last couple of sessions point to market uncertainty; however, with futures struggling above 180, we expect the gains to be marginal in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as moderate selling pressure prompted a close above the robust support of 2518 at 2515. The stochastics are falling, and the %K/%D converged on the downside. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. To confirm another bearish candle, futures need to open below the 2550 resistance. On the downside, the break below the current support level of 10 DMA at 2515 could set the scene towards the 40 DMA at 2454, confirming a growing trend on the downside. However, the market struggled below these levels in recent sessions, and a break below is needed to confirm the bearish outlook in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa strengthened on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 4271. The stochastics have converged on the upside and now are rising into the overbought. The MACD diff is negative and converging. A bullish candle with a longer lower wick suggests growing buying pressures; this could set the scene for higher prices to break above the trend resistance at 4300. This would confirm the trend for rising prices, up to 4400. On the downside, a breach of support at 10 DMA at 4196 would strengthen the bearish momentum. This could also trigger losses towards the 4100 level. Indicators are pointing to growing upside pressures, and if futures break above the trend resistance, we would expect to gain positive momentum in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures strengthened on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 3573. The %K/%D is diverging towards the overbought after converging on the upside. Likewise, the MACD diff is negative and converging. On the upside, finding support above the 10 DMA could trigger gains through 3600. On the downside, a break below the 10 DMA level could trigger losses back towards 3400. That level has been supporting futures’ prices, and a break below it would signal strong selling pressure. Longer lower wick signals that the buying pressure is growing, and the bullish outlook is on the horizon.
