1. Soft Commodities Outlook
  2. Softs Technical Charts

NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures

NY Sugar 29012024

NY sugar futures edged lower on Friday, prompting prices to close at 23.00. The indicators continue to favour the downside, as %K/%D converged on the downside, confirming growing selling pressures. The MACD is positive and converging. A break below 23.00 would bring into play the 10 DMA support level at 22.54. Prices have been relatively well supported above the trendline, and in order to indicate an improvement of market sentiment on the upside, futures need to gain a footing above 23.42 and then target 24.00 in the near term. The repeat of short bullish candles in recent days suggests a pause in the upside trend. In order to suggest further upside, futures have to remain above the 10 DMA before breaching the 23.42 level once again.

Tables 1 (372)

Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures

Ldn Sugar 29012024

Ldn sugar futures edged lower on Friday, breaching the 660 level to close at 654.20. The stochastics are falling out of the overbought, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the bearish indicators and rejection of prices above 675, futures need to break below the 650 level and then target the 10 DMA at 644.93, which is where the trend support currently is. On the upside, futures need to close 650 and 675, respectively, in order to confirm the outlook of higher prices towards the 100 DMA at 684.52. A small candle body points to a moderate appetite for lower prices. To suggest a change of trend, futures must break below the 10 DMA level first.

Tables 2 (371)

NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures

NY Coffee 29012024

NY coffee futures jumped higher on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 189.45. The %K/%D is once again diverging on the upside into the overbought area. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting growing buying pressures. On the upside, finding support above the 188.50 level could trigger gains through 192 towards 200 – a December high. On the downside, shorter-term DMAs are holding firm at 184 and 182, respectively, and a breach below these levels through 180 could signal a change of trend. The bullish engulfing formation highlights that the selling pressure is subsiding, and the bullish outlook is on the horizon.

Tables 3 (370)

Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures

Ldn Coffee 29012024

Ldn coffee futures gapped lower on Friday, but support at 3100 caused the market to close at 3112. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside and now falling, and the MACD diff is positive and converging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. Still, we believe that Friday’s positive candle might point to further gains on the upside, given the longer-term trendline remained intact. To confirm this, futures must first breach the 10 DMA level at 3148 before targeting the 3200 level once again. Alternatively, a breach of the trendline to 3000 could suggest the end of the bull trend that started in November 2023. The narrow candle body with a longer upper wick suggests a lack of appetite for higher prices, but we expect futures to hold at current levels in the meantime.

Tables 4 (372)

NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

NY Cocoa 29012024

NY cocoa futures held their nerve on Friday, as moderate buying pressure prompted a close above the previous day’s lows at 4601. The stochastics are falling, and the %K/%D converged on the downside, highlighting growing selling pressures. The MACD diff is positive but flat, suggesting a lack of momentum on the downside. Indeed, the 4550 level seems to be robust, and if it holds, futures could target and breach the 4600 level once again. On the downside, the break below the current support level of 4550 could set the scene towards the 10 DMA at 4487. However, the market struggled below the level in recent sessions, and a break below is needed to confirm the bearish outlook in the near term.

Tables 5 (370)

Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures

Ldn Cocoa 29012024

Ldn cocoa held its nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused futures to close above 10 DMA at 3679. The %K/%D converged on the downside, confirming the change of trend in the near term. The MACD is positive and converging, confirming waning buying pressure. The indicators point to waning buying pressures in the near term. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 3675 completely and then target the 3700. On the downside, the rejection of prices above these levels could trigger losses back to the 10 DMA level at 3624 before targeting 3570. Buying pressure has been weak, and the indicators point to a slowdown of that momentum. The doji candle confirms market uncertainty. The break of support at 10 DMA could confirm the outlook for lower prices in the near term.

Tables 6 (371)



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