NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as moderate selling pressure prompted a close below the robust resistance of 19.80 at 19.60. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D now converging on the downside, highlighting growing selling pressures. The MACD diff is positive and flat, suggesting a possible trend change. To confirm another bearish candle, futures need to close below the 10 DMA at 19.52, which has been robust. It could then target 19.00. On the upside, the break above 19.80 could set the scene towards the 20.00 level, confirming the longer-term trend on the upside. However, the market has struggled above this level in recent sessions, and a break below the 10 DMA is needed to confirm the indicators’ outlook in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close above 550 at 551. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D now converging back into the oversold territory. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, but the momentum is slowing, suggesting a waning appetite for higher prices. To confirm growing downside pressures, futures need to break below the 550 level completely alongside the 10 DMA level at 549.06; these levels are capping futures’ downside. Alternatively, a break above 550 towards 575 would confirm the strong bullish momentum. A long-legged doji candle shows indecision about either direction as it traded within the recent range. The indicators point to waning buying momentum, but futures need to close below the 10 DMA support to confirm this.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures edged higher on yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite at the 200 level and then close at 2488. The stochastics are improving, with %K/%D converging on the upside out of the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. In order to confirm the outlook of higher prices, futures need to close back above 200 and then target the shorter-term DMAs at 205. The 10 DMA crossed below the 40 DMA level, a death cross, capping futures’ upside in the near term. On the downside, if prices fall below the 100 DMA at 194.25, this could trigger losses towards 190 in the medium term. We believe that the market may be due to an upside move in the near term; however, a break of near-term resistance would help solidify the outlook.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures edged higher to retest the 3460 level, closing slightly below at 3439. The stochastics are showing signs of convergence on the upside, as %K is seen tailing off in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and converging. On the upside, if the resistance at 3460 is broken above, futures could test 3500 before 40 DMA at 3696. On the downside, the support level at 100 DMA is robust, and a break below this level could trigger losses of 3200. A longer upper wick suggests that there is a lack of appetite above the 3460 level. We expect futures to retest this level in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures edged marginally lower yesterday as prices closed at 8695. The %K/%D is now rising rapidly out of the oversold territory. Likewise, the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting a growing appetite for higher prices, but futures need to break above the 10 DMA level at 8633 completely to trigger the momentum. A break above this level towards the 40 DMA at 9206 would confirm the strong upside momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices below the 10 DMA could trigger a test of support of 8000. A long-legged candle shows indecision about either direction; the length of the wicks also points to increased volatility during the day. The indicators point to a further rise in prices, but futures need to close above 40 DMA, the level they struggled to break above completely in the last couple of days.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close at 7511. The stochastics are rising, and %K/%D is converging on the upside out of the oversold. The MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting waning selling pressure. The indicators point to growing strength in the near term, but prices struggled to break above the shorter-term DMAs in recent days; if futures break through these levels, it could trigger a test of resistance at 8000. On the downside, prices need to take out the 7348. A break below this level towards 7000 would confirm the strong bullish momentum. Another longer-bodied candle with upside and downside shadow points to a lack of momentum out of the current support/resistance range. Given the indicators’ view of growing buying momentum, we anticipate prices will be on the front foot in the near term.
