NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused the market to close below 10 DMA at 18.29. The stochastics are rising, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting higher prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to close back above the 10 DMA level at 18.40 and then target 18.63. The 10 DMA is starting to close in and resisting prices on the upside, suggesting that a break above this level would suggest a possible change of trend. On the downside, a confirmation of resistance at this level and a breach of support at 18.00 could trigger losses back towards new lows at 17.50. A break above this level would confirm the trend on the upside. Two narrow-bodied candles in the last couple of sessions point to market uncertainty, and the futures need to break out of current resistance/support to confirm the longer-term outlook.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at 10 DMA. This level held firm, and the futures closed below it at 518.70. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside – sending a strong sell signal. The MACD diff, however, is positive and diverging. The indicators paint a mixed picture, suggesting market uncertainty in regard to the price outlook. To suggest the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the support at 512.60, which could set the scene for futures to take out the robust support at 500. On the upside, the market needs to take out resistance of 10 DMA at 521.88 and then resistance at 540. The candle found support above 512, and a longer upper wick signals a growing appetite for higher prices. If futures break above the 10 DMA, we could see prices edge higher in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures sold off on Friday as a lack of appetite for prices above 235 prompted prices to correct to 221.25. The stochastics have just converged on the downside in the overbought territory, sending a strong sell signal. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and converging, supporting the outlook for deteriorating prices. The last two days formed a bearish engulfing pattern, a sign of an impending market downturn. The sell-off yesterday and a long lower wick suggest further selling pressure below the current support level, and the indicators support lower prices. A break below the 10 DMA at 219.20 is crucial to confirm this and could set the scene for a test of support at 40 DMA at 215.35. The 10 DMA level has crossed above the 40 DMA, which could provide support for prices in the near term. On the upside, gains back above the 230 level would help reaffirm the bullish trend in the near term towards 240. While indicators point to waning buying pressures, we expect prices to be supported above current DMAs today.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures buckled on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot, erasing most of the gains made that week, closing at 3987. The stochastics are falling as the %K/%D converged on the downside in the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and converging, confirming growing selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the trend support. A break below this level would confirm the outlook for further losses. On the upside, a break above the 4200 resistance level and reaffirmation of support above this level could strengthen the trend on the upside. Futures need to take out the 4338 in order to confirm the outlook for higher prices in the long run. The long candle body points to a lack of appetite for higher levels, and indicators suggest that we might see further softness in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading caused the market to close at 8586. The stochastics are rising, with %K entering the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting higher prices in the near term. However, to confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to close above the 40 DMA level at 8917 and then target 9000. On the downside, a break below 8000 could set the scene for 10 DMA at 7726. Two narrow-bodied candles with longer wicks in the last couple of sessions point to market uncertainty; however, with the recent indicator strength, we expect futures to edge closer to 40 DMA in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures opened slightly higher on Friday but struggled to break above the resistance at 7000 and closed at 6910. The stochastics are diverging on the upside, entering the overbought area. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting further gains in the near term. Prices need to take out the 6500 level to confirm the bearish momentum to 10 DMA at 6910. Conversely, appetite for prices above 7000 could trigger a test of resistance of 7348. A dragonfly doji candle shows rejection of higher prices above 7000 and could point to the start of a bearish sentiment in the near term. To confirm this, the support at 10 DMA has to be broken below first.
