NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures rallied once again on Friday, finishing the week more than 3.5 cents higher as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 22.00 at 22.74. The %K/%D is rising in the overbought, although showing some signs of convergence. The MACD is positive and elevated, which could indicate waning buying pressures in the near term. Indeed, futures rallied rapidly last week, and a pause at these levels could give markets some breathing room before reassessing future price path. On the downside, a break back below the support level of 22.00 could trigger losses back towards the 61.8% fib level at 21.44, which could set the scene for prices to come back to August’s ranges. On the upside, a complete break above 22.50 could trigger gains through resistance of 23.64 – a January high, towards 24.00. The market rally has been strong in recent sessions, with three white soldier’s formation confirming the strength of bull sentiment. Yesterday’s breakthrough, along with positive indicators, confirm that we could see prices edge higher in the near term before a potential trend pause.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures skyrocketed in recent sessions, and on Friday, the protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 587.70, the highest level since April. The %K/%D is diverging on the upside in the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, outlining the recent market rally. On the downside, a break back below the support level of 580.70 could trigger losses back towards 550; a break below the 10 DMA at 544.26 would confirm the outlook of lower prices in the longer term. On the upside, a break above 600 could trigger gains through robust resistance levels of 614 and 628, respectively. The market rally has been strong, with three white soldiers’ formation confirming the strength of bull sentiment. We could see prices trend even higher today; however, expect marker appetite to struggle above the 600 level.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee sold off sharply on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a breakthrough of the 10 DMA support level at 254.39. However, the trend support level remained intact, prompting prices to close slightly above it at 248.65. The stochastics are falling, with the %K/%D converging on the downside, and the MACD diff is also about to send the sell signal. This could set the scene for lower prices towards the 40 DMA support level at 243.03. A break below this would confirm the trend for falling prices down to the trend support, which has held firm since May 2024. On the upside, resistance at 260 has proven to be robust, and a break above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards 270. Near-term momentum is on the downside, but with the trend support intact, the longer-term outlook remains on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Prices weakened on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close just above 5000 at 5059. The stochastics are falling; the %K/%D converged on the downside, signalling a potential change in trend. The MACD diff has also converged into a negative territory, confirming growing selling pressures. However, today’s opening above the 5000 suggests a lack of appetite below this level. If this level is breached, we expect futures to find support at the regression line (in red). On the upside, a break above the 10 DMA at 5156 could see the test of the 5369 level – the recent high. We expect prices to remain on the back foot in the near term before regaining upside momentum.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa held its nerve on Friday as prices closed in line with previous days at 6206. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D entering the oversold territory. The MACD is negative and diverging, pointing to lower prices in the near term. The rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards support at 6000; a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards the 76.4% fib level at 5824. On the upside, a break of 6720 may prompt futures to retest the moving averages, which are capping price performance. A subsequent breach of these levels would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the longer term. Subsequent doji candles point to a lack of appetite out of current ranges.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve on Friday, causing the market to close at 4583. The stochastics are about to enter the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and continues to diverge, suggesting we could see further weakness in the near term. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to close back below 4489 and then target 4000. If this level breaks, the descending triangle formation would confirm the longer-term outlook on the downside. In the meantime, short candle bodies point to a lack of appetite on the downside.
