NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar gapped lower yesterday, breaking below the 22.00 level, but struggled to breach 21.00, triggering a strong gain during the day to close at 21.45. The stochastics continued to weaken, and the MACD diff converged on the downside, highlighting yesterday’s break below a solid support. Volumes are also weakening, suggesting we could see futures remain at current ranges in the near term. To confirm this, futures need to hold support at 21.00, but we expect futures to struggle above 21.50 in the near term. On the upside, if this level does not hold, we could see marginal losses to 20.76. We expect futures to test the 21.00 level today once again but to remain supported above it.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures gained ground yesterday as protracted buying pressure prompted a test of the 10 DMA level to close on the front foot at 588. The stochastics are falling, and the %K/%D is falling out of the overbought. The MACD is also seen converging, suggesting a lack of conviction for the upside. To confirm another bullish candle, futures need to break above the 10 DMA completely and then target the 600 level. On the downside, the break below 580.70 could set the scene for lower prices towards the support of 574. However, this is a robust support level, and the bullish candle suggests that it will remain firm. We believe that prices will remain in the 575 and 600 range in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Prices weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close back to the trend’s regression level; the market closed at 262.15. The stochastics are now falling, signalling a continuation of the moderate bearish trend. The MACD is positive and converging, and yesterday’s long candle body supports market decisiveness for lower levels in the short term. However, in order to confirm the change in the longer-term trend, prices need to break below the 255.30 support and then target the 40 DMA at 249.69. Conversely, a break back above the 10 DMA resistance at 263.55 could set the scene for a test of 290. We expect prices to remain supported above the 40 DMA support level in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close at 5179. The stochastics are falling moderately; the %K/%D is diverging on the downside, signalling a potential change in trend in the near term. The MACD is negative and diverging. However, yesterday’s thin candle body suggests market indecisiveness for significantly lower prices. On the upside, prices have been capped by 10 DMA resistance in recent sessions, and in order to confirm the change of momentum, prices need to break above this level and then target 5370. Conversely, a break below the 5000 support level could set the scene for lower prices. We expect prices to struggle above the 10 DMA level in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures weakened once again yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a break of 10 DMA support before closing at 5986. The stochastics are converging back into the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting we could see prices continue to weaken in the near term. The close is just off the lows, and the bearish indicators suggest we could see prices fall further and test 5824. The next robust level stands at 5500 – a February low. The bulls need to close above 10 DMA at 6350 in order to gain a foothold in the market and pave the way for higher prices to 7000. Selling pressure was strong yesterday, and this could trigger further losses in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures softened yesterday after breaching the support level of 4489. The market closed lower at 4420. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just converging on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging. The appetite back above 4500 could set the scene for higher prices to test the trend resistance. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 4490 completely to confirm the bearish trend and the descending triangle formation. A break below these levels to 4000 would confirm the strong downside momentum in the longer term.
