NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar weakened on Friday, as moderate selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 19.26. The stochastics are falling, as the MACD diff just flipped on the downside, sending a bearish signal. Likewise, the %K/%D has now entered the oversold area. A full bearish candle suggests growing selling pressures; this could set the scene for lower prices to break below the 19.21 support level. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 19.00. On the upside, resistance at 10 DMA at 19.80 has proven to be strong, and a break above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 20.00 level. Another bearish candle would create the three black crows’ formation and could signal an impeding market downturn. We expect prices to continue to fall in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures edged lower Friday as moderate selling pressure caused futures to close at 530.60. The stochastics are diverging on the downside, with %K now in the oversold territory, but the MACD is negative and flat, suggesting a lack of strong downside pressures. The rejection of prices above 540.20 has formed a candle with a longer wick on the downside, suggesting an appetite for lower prices, however, lacking conviction to break above the near term support. If prices were to break below 530, this could trigger a test of 519 and then 512.60. On the upside, futures need to take out 540.20 and then robust resistance at the 10 DMA at 545.17. Indicators point to further selling pressure today, but the futures need to take out 530 in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve on Friday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at the 10 DMA once again. This level held firm, and futures closed at 316.42. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside and now falling. The MACD diff is positive and converging, signalling growing selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the support at 10 DMA at 316.42, which is also the robust trend resistance, which could set the scene for futures to take out the 300 level. On the upside, the market needs to take out resistance at 320 once again, and then resistance at 330. The candle found support above 10 DMA, and a longer upper wick signals appetite for lower prices. If the futures break below the current levels, we could see prices edge lower, and indicators point to a continuation of a downtrend.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee held their nerve on Friday as prices closed at 5184. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D strengthening on the upside after converging higher. The MACD is positive and flat, suggesting prices are likely to remain elevated. However, the rejection of higher prices may prompt a break back towards support at 10 DMA at 5002, a subsequent breach of this level could trigger losses towards 4800. On the upside, a break of 5200 and 5300 may prompt futures to retest last sessions’ highs at 5500. A subsequent breach of this level would prompt prices to regain upside momentum in the longer term. Short wicks point to a lack of appetite out of current ranges, and futures needs to break above the current resistance to confirm the indicators’ outlook for lower prices.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures rallied on Friday as protracted buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot at 11300 – an April high. The %K/%D is diverging on the upside further into the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting further upside pressures. On the downside, a break below the support level of 10779 could trigger losses back towards 10 DMA at 10088, down through 10000 to confirm the outlook of lower prices in the near term. On the upside, the reaffirmation of support above 110000 could trigger gains towards 11722 – April and all-time high. Markets found a new rally after starting on a lower footing last week, and a close above the key resistance level at 50% fib retracement suggests further appetite. The indicators point to further buying pressures, and prices need to completely break through the resistance to confirm that outlook.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures opened lower but managed to close higher day-on-day at 8512. The stochastics are rising, but %K is seen tailing off on the downside in the overbought, which could suggest a change of momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is positive and flat. On the upside, futures need to break above the robust trend resistance and 8900 to trigger the momentum. Prices would then need to take out this level to confirm the longer-term outlook. Conversely, appetite for prices below the 10 DMA at 8048, which could trigger a test of support of 8000. Candles have been trading range bound in the last couple of sessions, with the trend resistance capping upside momentum. To confirm the indicators’ outlook on the downside, the futures have to break below the 8000 level first.
