NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below the 18.00 level at the robust support line of 17.89. The stochastics are falling moderately; the %K/%D is oversold and diverging despite nearly converging on the upside. The MACD is negative and converging. The long candle body with a longer lower wick suggests robust downside pressures; however, a close at the robust support level at 17.88 suggests that the market lacks the conviction to break the multi-month low. In order to confirm the change of momentum, prices need to break above the current resistance at 19.00 and then target 10 DMA at 18.50. We expect futures to retest the 17.89 level today before confirming the direction of the near-term trend.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading caused the market to close below robust support and resistance levels at 510.40. The stochastics are rising, with %K/%D edging higher, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, suggesting higher prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook for higher prices, futures need to close back above 512.60 and then target 519. On the downside, the rejection of prices above the 10 DMA at 510.74 could trigger losses back towards 505. A break below this level and a breach of 500 would confirm the trend on the downside. A narrow-bodied candle yesterday points to market uncertainty, and futures need to break out of current support and resistance to confirm the longer-term outlook.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close at 317.30. The %K/%D is positive and diverging. The MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting waning selling pressure. The indicators point to higher prices in the near term, and to confirm the rejection of the resistance, prices need to take out the 10 DMA at 318.41. A break above this level towards the 320 and 330 would confirm the strong bullish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices below the 315 level could trigger a test of support at 40 DMA at 307.14. A negative doji candle after a gravestone candle signals market uncertainty and narrowing support and resistance levels are creating a tight trading range, a break out of which would set the scene for strong momentum. We anticipate prices to remain elevated in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee edged higher yesterday as the DMAs supported a marginal upside; the market closed at 5019. Stochastics are rising, and %K/%D is diverging on the upside, confirming a continuation of the moderate bullish trend in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and converging. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 5100 and then target 5150, which is last week’s high. On the downside, the rejection of prices above 5000 could trigger losses back below the 10 and 40 DMAs to 100 DMA at 4850. Buying pressure remains weak, and the doji candle confirms market uncertainty; however, indicators point to a continuation of this trend. The reaffirmation of support above 10 DMA could strengthen the outlook of higher prices.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures softened yesterday after closing below 10779 at 10678. The stochastics are rising into the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is negative and converging, suggesting we could see higher prices in the near term. A break above 10779 would bring into play 11000. On the downside, futures need to break the 10 DMA level at 10624 in order to confirm downside momentum. The break below 10000 and 9772 could strengthen the trend in the long run on the downside. The longer upper wick points to a lack of appetite for strong upside pressures, but we expect prices to remain elevated in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw futures close at 8552. The stochastics are flat, and the MACD diff is negative and also flat, suggesting little appetite out of current ranges. To suggest the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the resistance at 10 DMA, which could set the scene for the 9000 level. On the downside, the market needs to take out support at 8294 and then 8000 to suggest the outlook for lower prices. The indicators point to continued sideways trading in the near term, but with a longer upper wick yesterday; we see prices are capped by the 10 DMA level.
