NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 17.71. The stochastics are falling, with %K seen tailing off marginally in the oversold, suggesting waning selling pressures. The MACD diff is negative and flat. To suggest an outlook for a trend change, futures need to close back above 18.00 and then target the 40 DMA level at 18.19. The 17.71 level has been robust, and markets have struggled to break below this level in recent days. However, a break below that level could set the scene for 17.50 and then 17.00. A narrow candle body with a longer lower wick points to a lack of appetite on the downside, but the futures need to break above the current resistance of 18.00 to confirm a trend change.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar softened yesterday, as moderate selling pressure prompted a close just below the 500 support level at 499.50. The stochastics are falling, with %K seen tailing off in the oversold, highlighting waning selling pressures. The MACD diff is negative and diverging. The indicators suggest that markets might have a bit more room on the downside before a possible trend change. The next robust level on the downside is 493.80, and a break below this level could trigger further losses to 480. Alternatively, resistance at 40 DMA has proven to be strong, and an appetite above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum to 512.60. A short candle body with a longer lower wick point to a lack of appetite on the downside; however, the futures need to break completely above the 40 DMA to confirm the outlook.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee weakened yesterday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot at 387.15. The stochastics are falling, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging again. A full bearish candle suggests growing selling pressures; however, to confirm this, the 10 DMA support at 385.39 has to be broken below first. This would confirm the trend for falling prices, down to 381.40. On the upside, resistance at 400 needs to be targeted, and a break above that level would strengthen the bullish momentum. This could also trigger gains towards the 415 level. The bearish engulfing pattern suggests an impending market downturn, and we expect prices to continue to fall in the near term. However, to confirm this, the 10 DMA has to be breached first.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Prices weakened yesterday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below the 10 and 40 DMA support levels; the market closed at 5427. The stochastics are falling, and the MACD is negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. Yesterday’s dip was well bid, but in order to confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the trend support levels at 5369. The 100 DMA support at 5076 is a pivotal level, a break below, which would suggest a long-term trend change. Conversely, a break back above 5500 could set the scene for a test of 5750. With 10 DMA crossing below a 40 DMA level, we could see a potential change in trend in the near term. However, prices need to break below the trend support level to confirm the outlook for more bearish momentum.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures opened lower yesterday but managed to close higher day-on-day at 8187. The stochastics are continuing to diverge in the oversold, with %K%D falling lower. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting further weakness in the near term. On the upside, futures need to break above the resistance levels of 100 DMA at 8397 and 10 DMA at 8688 to trigger the momentum. Prices would then need to take out the 9000 level to confirm the longer-term outlook. Conversely, appetite for prices below 8000 could signal further weakness. Yesterday’s candle shows rejection of lower prices, but we expect futures to remain at the lower end of the trading range in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday as prices struggled above the 100 DMA level once again, prompting a close at 6443. The %K/%D is continuing to diverge on the downside. Futures need to break back below 6000 first to trigger the momentum on the downside. A break below this level towards 5359 – an October 2024 low. Conversely, appetite for prices back above the 100 DMA at 6647 could set the scene for the 10 DMA at 6961. A long-legged doji candle shows indecision about either direction as prices trade near the lows. The indicators highlight continued downside pressures in the near term.
