NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures jumped higher yesterday, closing below the psychological resistance of 19.00 at 18.98. A break above this level could potentially trigger further bullish momentum towards 19.21, with the next major resistance at 19.49. The market has shown signs of recovery, holding above the 10DMA at 18.24, which now acts as immediate support. Stochastic indicators have turned upwards, indicating strengthening buying pressure and suggesting further upside potential. Meanwhile, MACD remains slightly positive at 0.0129, showing a gradual convergence, which, if sustained, could confirm a shift in momentum in favour of the bulls. On the downside, if sugar fails to hold 18.24, a decline towards 18.00 is possible, followed by a key support level at 17.71, where previous buying interest emerged. A break below 17.71 would expose the market to deeper losses towards 16.64. How the price behaves around these key levels will determine whether the current recovery has the strength to continue, with a daily close above 18.98 reinforcing bullish momentum. We expect futures to retest the 19.00 level today.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar futures strengthened, breaking above the robust resistance of 520, prompting a close on the front foot at 524.40. A break above this level could pave the way for bullish momentum towards the 100DMA at 527.66, with further upside potential targeting 540.20, a major resistance level where previous selling pressure emerged. Momentum indicators support this outlook, as stochastics have crossed bullishly and are rising, indicating increasing buying strength without yet reaching overbought levels. The MACD diff remains negative but is converging towards zero, suggesting that bearish momentum is fading but not entirely gone. On the downside, 512.60 (10DMA) serves as immediate support, and a break below this level could trigger losses towards 509.35 and potentially 493.80, which has acted as a critical price floor in recent sessions. If the market fails to hold 493.80, deeper losses towards 464.00 could be in play, signalling a shift back into bearish territory. Today’s session is crucial in determining short-term direction—if sugar manages to close above the 100 DMA with strong volume, bullish momentum is likely to accelerate. We expect prices to approach this level today.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve yesterday, causing the market to close at 385.70. The stochastics are falling, with %K seen tailing off marginally on the downside, and the MACD diff is negative and flat, suggesting lower prices in the near term. To confirm the outlook for lower, futures need to close below 381.40 and then target the 40 DMA at 378.14. The 10 DMA is closing in and resisting prices on the upside. However, a break above that level could set the scene for 400. The narrow candle body with a longer lower wick points to a lack of appetite on the downside, but the futures need to break below 381 to confirm the indicators' outlook in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee held the nerve yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to close at 5528. The %K/%D is rising as it is diverging on the upside, confirming the continuation of a positive trend. The MACD diff is negative and converging, soon to send a strong buy signal. To confirm a full bullish candle, prices need to close above 5569 and then target 5700, which is last week's high. On the downside, the rejection of prices above current levels could trigger losses back to the 10 DMA at 5485. Buying pressure was weak yesterday, and indicators point to growing buying pressures. The doji candle, however, suggests market uncertainty out of the current range. The break of 5569 could confirm the outlook for higher prices in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures softened marginally yesterday as intraday trading saw futures test appetite at 10 and 100 DMA. These levels held firm, and futures closed at 8172. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside. Likewise, the MACD diff is negative and flat, signalling waning buying pressures. To suggest the outlook for higher prices, futures need to break above the resistance at 8423, which could set the scene for futures to take out the 9000 level. On the downside, the market needs to take out support at 8000. The 100 DMA level continues to resist futures on the upside, and with a longer upper wick on Thursday, we could see the bears' strength grow in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures held their nerve yesterday after testing the resistance levels of 100 and 10 DMAs. The market closed lower at 6341. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D just entering the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative. The reaffirmation of support at 6200 could set the scene for higher prices back to test the 10 DMA level at 6562, confirming an inverse hammer formation. On the downside, futures need to break below the support of 6200 in order to confirm the bearish trend. Indeed, this support level has been robust in the last couple of days; a break below this level would suggest strong conviction on the downside. The longer upper wick with a narrow body confirms the resistance is still intact.
