NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar futures edged higher yesterday, breaking above resistance at 19.50 and closing at 19.65. The stochastics are edging towards the overbought territory, and the MACD diff is positive and diverging, outlining recent bullish sessions. On the upside, futures need to break above the robust resistance of 20.00; the reaffirmation of support above that level could trigger gains towards the level at 20.50. Alternatively, a break back below the current support at 19.50 would bring into play the 100 DMA level at 19.65, which could set the scene for support at 10 and 40 DMAs at 18.50. We see prices edge higher in the near term. However, futures need to close above 20.00 to confirm the outlook for higher prices in the long term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Ldn sugar edged higher yesterday as intraday trading caused futures to test appetite at 550; the market struggled above this level, prompting a close at 548. Stochastics are rising, and %K/%D is diverging on the upside towards the overbought. The MACD diff is positive and diverging. To maintain positive momentum, prices need to close above 550 and then target 560 – a November high. On the downside, the rejection of prices above current levels could trigger losses back to the 100 DMA level at 526.58. Buying pressure was weak yesterday, and the indicators suggest that prices are approaching overbought levels. The doji candle confirms market uncertainty above the 550 mark. We expect futures to struggle to break significantly higher in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading tested appetite at the 10 DMA at 387.61. This level held firm, and futures closed at 383.80. The stochastics are falling, with %K trading in the oversold, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, signalling growing selling pressures. To confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the support at 381.40, which could set the scene for futures to test the long-term trend support. On the upside, the market needs to take out resistance of 10 DMA and then resistance at 400. Futures need to break out of current support and resistance levels to suggest the outlook in the near term. The oversold technical conditions suggest that we could see a potential trend change back to recent highs.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures held their nerve yesterday as intraday trading saw prices close at 5469. The %K/%D is flat, as the MACD diff remains moderately negative, suggesting a lack of appetite out of the current range. A break below 5369 towards 100 DMA at 5148 would confirm the growing bearish momentum. Conversely, appetite for prices back above 5500 could set the scene for 5569. A long-legged doji candle shows indecision about either direction; the length of the wicks also points to increased volatility during the day. The indicators struggle to point out an outlook suggesting futures could continue to trade rangebound in the near term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures opened lower but managed to close higher day-on-day at 8045. The stochastics are rising, with %K seen tailing off on the upside in the oversold, which could suggest a change of momentum in the near term. The MACD diff is negative and converging. This suggests that the recent price trend could reverse on the upside. To confirm this, futures need to break above the robust resistance levels of 10 and 100 DMAs at 8157 and 8415, respectively. Prices would then need to take out the 9000 level to confirm the longer-term outlook. Conversely, appetite for prices below 8000 could trigger a test of support of 7336. A candle with a longer upper wick suggests rejection of higher prices; however, the indicators point to a trend reversal. A break above the 10 and 100 DMAs is crucial to confirm the near-term outlook on the upside.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Ldn cocoa futures gained ground yesterday as moderate buying pressure triggered a close on the front foot above 6000 at 6224. The stochastics are rising, with the %K/%D converging on the upside in the oversold area, as the MACD diff is negative and converging. This suggests we could see higher prices in the near term back towards the 100 DMA at 6626, but the market needs to take out immediate resistance of 10 DMA at 6356. On the downside, the candle closed above 6000, and if the prices breached this level, we could see prices test new lows. A longer upper wick points to a lack of appetite for higher prices, but futures need to take out 10 DMA completely in order to confirm the outlook on the upside.
