NY 2nd Month Sugar Futures
NY sugar weakened on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below the longer-term DMA levels at 18.68. The stochastics are falling moderately; the %K/%D has converged on the upside, signalling a potential change in trend. The MACD also converged on the downside, sending a sell signal, and yesterday’s candle supports market decisiveness for lower prices. Still, in order to confirm the downward trend, the support at 18.50 has to be breached first before targeting the 18.00 level. Conversely, a break back above all the DMAs could set the scene for a test of 19.21. With all three DMAs now acting as resistance levels, we expect prices to weaken in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Sugar Futures
Prices weakened on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close below the 10 DMA support level. Still, the market struggled below the longer-term DMAs, prompting a close above them at 526.80. The stochastics are falling after converging on the downside, and the MACD is now negative and diverging, suggesting growing selling pressure. Dips in the market have been well bid in the last couple of sessions, but in order to confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break below the current support levels at 40 and 100 DMAs at 526.09 and 522.14, respectively. Conversely, a break back above the 10 DMA at 531.32 could set the scene for a test of 540.20. Prices need to break below current DMA support levels in order to confirm the outlook for more bearish momentum.
NY 2nd Month Coffee Futures
NY coffee futures sold off on Friday after investors rejected prices above the trendline, prompting a close below 380 and 370, respectively, to 363.30 – s January low. The stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside and edging close to the oversold territory, suggesting a short-term negative trend. The MACD diff is negative and diverging, indicating improving sentiment on the downside. To confirm the change in the longer-term trend, prices need to break below the support level of 100 DMA at 348.60 before the 317.30 level. On the upside, to regain upside conviction, futures need to close back above shorter-term DMAs and then target 4000 in the near term. Near-term momentum is on the downside; the close below the trendline support confirms this trend.
Ldn 2nd Month Coffee Futures
Ldn coffee futures sold off on Friday as a lack of appetite for higher prices above the 10 DMA helped to confirm the rejection of bullish momentum. The market closed below the 100 DMA of 5280 at 5128. Stochastics are falling, with %K/%D converging on the downside, nearing the oversold territory, and the MACD diff is negative and diverging, suggesting lower prices in the near term. The sell-off on Friday and close on the lows suggest strong selling pressure, and the break below the 100 DMA support confirms the outlook for lower prices. A break below 5000 could signal the end of the long-term trend. However, to confirm this, futures must take out the 4664 level first. On the upside, support of around 5000 would help reaffirm the continuation of the upside trend. Key levels on the upside are now the DMAs, and if futures break above these levels, this could set the scene for higher prices to 5500 in the medium term.
NY 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
NY cocoa futures buckled on Friday as protracted selling pressure triggered a close on the back foot below 40 DMA at 8516. The stochastics are tailing off and converging on the downside. Likewise, the MACD diff is positive and converging, confirming growing selling pressure; this could set the scene for lower prices towards the 100 and 10 DMAs at 8300. A break below these levels would confirm the outlook for lower prices, down to 8000. On the upside, a break back above the 40 DMA at 8790 resistance level and reaffirmation of support above 9000 could strengthen the trend on the upside in the long run. The long candle body and short wicks point to an increased appetite for lower prices, and indicators confirm the outlook for more downside momentum in the near term.
Ldn 2nd Month Cocoa Futures
Prices weakened on Friday as moderate selling pressure triggered a close just above the 10 DMA support level; the market closed at 6370. The stochastics are tailing off and converging on the downside, and the MACD is positive and converging, suggesting waning buying pressure. Dips in the market have been well bid in the last couple of sessions but in order to confirm the outlook for lower prices, futures need to break the support of 10 DMA at 6342 and then 6000. Conversely, a break above the 100 DMA at 6370 resistance could set the scene for a test of 40 DMA 6890. The DMAs are closing in and creating a tighter trading range, but to confirm the indicators’ outlook on the downside, futures must breach the 10 DMA level first. The 6000 support level is crucial for the longer-term trajectory.
