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Latest Non-independent Research
Daily
A morning report covering fundamentals and technicals for USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF.
Technical analysis and charts for the key sugar, cocoa and coffee contracts.
Weekly
Commentary and analysis covering OTC currency option pricing, volatility and positioning.
Monthly
Monthly commentary covering the FX markets, providing insights on recent developments on select currency pairs. The report includes a macroeconomic overview as well as desk comments and technical analysis on key currency pairs.
Quarterly
The global macro picture is starting to present some downside risks in the near term as China's economy is set to slow further and supply-chain bottlenecks continue to cap growth. New orders and new export orders in China are contractionary, and we expect demand in Q4. Order backlogs and lead times for products will continue in Q4, limiting growth, and real consumption is weaker than it looks. Higher costs from shipping, raw materials and energy will take their toll on the consumer, and we expect end-user demand to suffer. The final piece of the jigsaw is the reduction in stimulus from central banks and how that will impact financial markets, bond yields, and the dollar has rallied while stocks corrected, but what will this trend continue?
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Investment Research
Hot and Cold - Coffee Market Outlook
Following the release of our Crop Update last month, our analysts provide a more in-depth breakdown of the S&D balance, whilst looking at the damage to the Brazil crop as a result of the drought and frosts. The two weather events combined is unprecedented. We have entered the deficit year and Brazil shipments are falling, and the gross short and defaults are a real threat. Consumption is back to pre-pandemic levels but high prices could cause headwinds to demand in this higher unemployment environment, despite coffee's inelasticity of demand.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Coffee Crop Update - Choppy Waters
Read our short coffee crop update, with commentary on recent price activity, coffee market forecasts and potential trading strategies to take advantage of market movements. The weather in Brazil is still not preferential for a large 2022/23 crop, aiding bullish fundamentals further, but there is a long way to go. Shipments and inventories are starting to fall as we move into a deficit, but the front months are plagued by macro events. Traders need to be patient, but what are the key themes for the market in the next month?
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Electric Vehicle and Battery Material Report
In the first instalment of our new Electric Vehicle and Battery Materials report, Sucden Financial's research team outline key policy changes in the US, China, Europe and Japan, in the last 12-months. We also provide a brief update on global EV sales and developments in battery technologies, in particular cathodes. Finally, our analysts provide a detailed outlook for the battery materials in the coming months.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Brazil in Vogue - Coffee Market Update
Following the release of our Crop Update last month, our analysts provide a more in-depth breakdown of the S&D balance, whilst looking at the bright spots for consumption post-COVID. Brazil shipments are starting to fall, but the deficit has not yet shown its cards. European economic growth lags behind the U.S. and we expect this to remain the case due to poor vaccine policy management, causing consumption growth in the bloc to be weaker.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Patience - Crop Update
Our analysts provide a short update for the coffee market and recent price activity. The weather issues we reported in December are starting to materialise, but shipments and inventories fail to confirm the deficit. Traders need to be patient but what are the key themes for the market in the next month?
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - Europe Energy Sector
The fourth of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated in Europe, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Daria Efanova
Woeful Weather
The latest update of our fundamental coffee market outlook focuses on consumption in recent months, and how recent stimulus packages will help prevent demand destruction. The road ahead is unclear but we provide trading strategies to help navigate the market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - Japan Energy Sector
The third of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated in Japan, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Back To The Grind
The latest coffee report continues to analyse the impact COVID-19 has had on demand by re-applying previously used models. Our analysts also go through some recent changes to our crop forecasts and reinforce their trading strategies for the coming months as volatility picks up.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Setting the Scene
The latest update of our fundamental coffee market outlook focuses on consumption in recent months, and how recent stimulus packages will help prevent demand destruction. The road ahead is unclear but we provide trading strategies to help navigate the market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - China Energy Sector
The second of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated in China, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Home Time
The latest report outlines the fundamentals of the coffee market and assesses the impact of COVID-19 on demand and supply chain logistics. We outline changes to our forecasts for the 2020/21 season and provide some trading strategies to help navigate this tricky market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
The True Cost of Electric Vehicles - US Energy Sector
The first of four reports focusing on how the electricity to charge electric vehicles is generated, comparing their overall efficiency and carbon footprint with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
Blue Skies Ahead?
The latest episode of our fundamental coffee market outlook looks at whether or not the recent rally will last and gives some trading strategies to help navigate the market.
Written by Geordie Wilkes
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