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Daily Base Metals Report

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Stocks in the U.S. have found support today as investors continue to believe the virus is levelling off and becoming under control, however, earnings are a dark cloud for markets. We believe the market will continue to look at virus cases and fatalities for direction. The looming recession could trigger a correction in the long run. Oil prices have softened today, down 5% at the time of writing. This follows the OPEC+ deal which was finalised over the weekend, but the market does not believe the cut has gone far enough.

Prices on the LME continue to rise over fears of supply loss. Estimates for supply loss ranges from 15-25% of global supply. Production at Antamina is expected to re-start in 2 weeks while Cerro Verde is running at limited capacity. Copper prices gained 3% to close on the front foot at $5,163/t with the cash to 3 month remained in contango at $29/t, Tin prices have also found support, closing up $15,457/t. Nickel prices were supported through $11,800/t to $11,889/t, the spreads remain soft at -$78.25/t. Aluminium was also supported today breaking back above $1,500/t to close on the front foot at $1,503.50/t. Zinc and Lead broke above key resistance today with zinc closing above $1,900/t at $1,922.50/t but lead failed above resistance at $1,700/t at $1,695/t.

Gold continued to be well bid to $1,735.60/oz as governments and central banks increase stimulus and investors look to safe havens. Silver prices were also well bid today to $15.75/oz.


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COVID cases are rising across the globe as the delta variant spreads, this is causing some nervousness in financial markets, especially with the higher inflation rhetoric. Commodity prices have fallen since the Fed changed their tune inflation, the dollar has stabilised which has also been a headwind to prices. The summer months are traditionally quieter for metals demand which could prompt metals to consolidate. If the delta variant continues to spread, we may see higher levels of stimulus for longer. As things stand stimulus levels are set to be tapered and this could be brought forward if inflation remains high. We expect markets to remain volatile but on lower volume through the summer months.