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Non-independent Research Daily Base Metals Report

Non-independent Research

Daily Base Metals Report

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Authors
Geordie Wilkes

Geordie Wilkes Head of Research

Contact research Contact Industrial Commodities

U.S. stocks firmed today as some earnings reports were above expectations. Investors are starting to believe that covid-19 curves are flattening. There wasn’t much data released today but we did see consumer confidence in Europe fall to -22.7 in April from -11.6 in March. Government debt to GDP for 2019 fell to 84.1% however we now expect that to be considerably higher in 2020.

Copper has rebounded along with equity markets, Antofagasta Plc suggested production will be closer to 725,000 ton in 2020. Production suspensions are supporting prices in the near term. Copper broke back above $5,100/t to close at $5,131.5/t. Ali was also well supported back above $1,500/t to $1,515/t, but cash-3s remain weak at -$38.70/t. Lead was fairly steady today gaining ground to close at $1,671/t. Nickel prices gave back some recent gains, closing at $12,015/t.

Gold prices were well bid today, breaking back above $1,700/oz to $1,713.70/oz. Silver also took back some of yesterday’s losses to $15.04/oz.

The oil market was well bid today as tensions between producers heightened after President Trump order U.S. navy ships to destroy “any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships”. Brent and WTI trade at $20.39/bl and $13.71/bl respectively.

Disclaimer

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COVID cases are rising across the globe as the delta variant spreads, this is causing some nervousness in financial markets, especially with the higher inflation rhetoric. Commodity prices have fallen since the Fed changed their tune inflation, the dollar has stabilised which has also been a headwind to prices. The summer months are traditionally quieter for metals demand which could prompt metals to consolidate. If the delta variant continues to spread, we may see higher levels of stimulus for longer. As things stand stimulus levels are set to be tapered and this could be brought forward if inflation remains high. We expect markets to remain volatile but on lower volume through the summer months.

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